20062019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

20062019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs.
    • I’m fail­ing here. I was gonna skip din­ner yes­ter­day but end­ed up still eat­ing lat­er on. 
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good even though I slept less than usual. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release     Jun 18, 2019
  • Actu­al            ‑0.812M
  • Pre­vi­ous        4.850M
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release    Jun 19, 2019
  • Actu­al            ‑3.106M
  • Fore­cast        ‑1.077M
  • Pre­vi­ous        2.206M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High    54.617
      • PVAH    54.397
      • PPOC    54.264
      • PVAL    53.903
      • Low    53.488
    • Where is the LIS?
      • Prev High area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • Con­tin­ue the HTF UT instead we flipped into a short term HTF R
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF R with pos­si­ble delayed con­tin­u­a­tion of HTF UT

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF50MACAS
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • HTFUKCBOF but still above 1.0SD how­ev­er signs of weak­en­ing momen­tum on the short-term still bull­ish on medi­um- and long-term

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MACAS
  • Entry around 54.60
  • Tar­gets 54.90, extend­ed 55.20, 55.80
• Hypo 2 Rota­tion­al 54.30 — 54.90
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTFLKCBD
  • Entry around 54.55
  • Tar­gets 54.30, extend­ed 53.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Pos­si­ble Spike move over HTFUKC with rever­sal on horizon
  • 16:35
    • HTFUKCPB (as part of a pos­si­ble HHTFUKCBO or a F) but not entire­ly con­fi­dent in a con­tin­u­a­tion of the move, pos­si­ble rollover
  • 17:05
    • Attempt to push high­er but looks like bulls might be run­ning out of air how­ev­er TTF still shows PB after run up to stay above 1.0SD will wait for a BD if none then still bull­ish on the market
  • 17:35
    • Price still creep­ing up fol­low­ing TTFUKC but KC widen­ing so will prob­a­bly not take any trades since I’m not too sure what’s going on. 
  • 18:05
    • Move to TTF50MA but no sign of CAS or BD yet
  • 18:35
    • No sign of high momen­tum move so still uncertain
  • 19:05
    • TTF50MACAS how­ev­er messy posi­tion­ing. I’ve seen HHTF moves be more messy before. 
  • 19:35
    • TTF50MACAS +nshot up and over TTFUKC

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MACAS
  • Entry around 54.60
  • Tar­gets 54.90, extend­ed 55.20, 55.80
• Hypo 2 Rota­tion­al 54.30 — 54.90
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTFLKCBD
  • Entry around 54.55
  • Tar­gets 54.30, extend­ed 53.90

	Date:	6/20/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	88
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	7	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	1	Hypos	2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	2/2	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/2	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	38	Total		50

• Week­ly Goal
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
    • I did well here. Took real­ly small size in exper­i­men­tal trades.
• Review

		Psy­chol­o­gy Journal
P/L ticks	Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
-9.7	1	0	0	(test) TTFUKCCAR	1	SO	move above tech lev­el so covered	-	-
-4.3	2	0	0	(test) TTF50MACAS	one from 2	scratched half	we crossed a tech lev­el so scratched half to see what would hap­pen with the rest since PA was­n’t behav­ing like ‘nor­mal’	-	-
5.7	2	0	0	(test) TTF50MACAS	one from 2	scratched half	cov­ered when I saw momen­tum die off	-	-

• Should have let the 2nd trade devel­op and could have pock­et­ed 35+ ticks
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 10%
    • In hind­sight I lacked the clar­i­ty to see this move
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • Did well here and it was a good day to play around with some exper­i­men­tal trades that I’m track­ing on my 2nd account
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Slept an hour less than normal
  • E: I felt like tak­ing a lot of trades but did well to con­trol my emo­tions and try to focus on points of inter­est and not take risk based on emotion
  • CS: I did well here even though I slept an hour less than normal
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Learn­ing more about mar­ket con­text and pat­terns I see hap­pen on all my time frames which is a good con­fir­ma­tion of the valid­i­ty of them
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Keep being sci­en­tif­ic about this. Gath­er data and work probabilities
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Try and have my progress go faster than it’s going. I have a good process to progress in this field. Does it still need work?! Hell yeah it does, but one step at a time. This is my path. I walk it like only I can do it 🙂 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.