19082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

19082019 Mon­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs by only eat­ing rice and noo­dles for break­fast and not lat­er on in the day.
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. Had a lot of sleep. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

• API report
  • Tomor­row
• EIA report
  • Wednes­day

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • Pos­si­ble HHTF R in effect but we had sup­port at 50 for the last 3 trad­ing days
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 55.575
    • PVAH 55.077
    • PPOC 54.688
    • PVAL 54.487
    • Prev. Low 54.177
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • TTF R in effect with lots of AD at LKC indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble BO from R, we had one run up to BO from R at UKC how­ev­er that failed and we returned back into R
    • 50 and 200 are almost flat how­ev­er slight­ly slop­ing up
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • AS has been trad­ing up with medi­um PA crossed over 200 plus bounce off 200 pos­si­bly set­ting up for a BO or F into HTF UKCCAR

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF UKC BO F
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.20, 55.05, 54.75, 54.50
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.20, 55.05, 54.75, 54.50
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF UKC BO
  • Entry around 55.550
  • Tar­gets 55.80, 56.20
• Hypo 4 Rotational
  • 55.20 — 55.45

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF UKC BO F
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­bought back into KC with pos­si­ble UKCCAR
    • Bias
      • Short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF UKC BO F
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF R above 50
    • TTF
      • TTF R R line BO+PB to 200MA pos­si­ble CAS or BD
    • Bias
      • Unclear
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
  • 19:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF R around 50M
    • TTF
      • TTF R Oversold
    • Bias
      • Unclear
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear ATM

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF UKC BO F
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.20, 55.05, 54.75, 54.50
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.20, 55.05, 54.75, 54.50
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF UKC BO
  • Entry around 55.550
  • Tar­gets 55.80, 56.20
• Hypo 4 Rotational
  • 55.20 — 55.45

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/19/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	96
Process Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS
	10	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	8	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	46	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
1/1	10	Setups tak­en
0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	50	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
    • Did well here
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • Did cor­rect siz­ing how­ev­er could have let the first trade run longer. The drop that I was wait­ing for nev­er came but the small PA con­tin­ued trend­ing down
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
    • Did well here
• Review

P/L ticks	Trade Idea	Pos.	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover
2.6	1	1	-	-	HTF UKC BO F	10	TP	Slow PA with no drop from tech lev­el indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble rever­sal on short term
2.4	2	2	-	-	HTF R 50MA BD	10	TP	Real­ized the move was over based on a pat­tern that I remem­bered and cut the posi­tion off

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 100%
    • Did well here
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • Did well here as well
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Just flew in ear­li­er and I guess the trip made me more tired than I thought
  • E: Did well here
  • CS: Start­ed get­ting real­ly tired mid­way through the ses­sion and as I write now my eyes are heavy. I felt great ear­li­er and grad­ed myself to trade ful­ly. Next time I’ll take note of the fact that I have trav­eled and adjust accordingly.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I don’t always have to be in a trade. Only work the high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty oppor­tu­ni­ties and if a move hap­pens with­out me? Learn from it so I can catch it next time. I did well on that last part.
• Positive(s)
  • Stayed out of trou­ble by focus­ing on high prob­a­bil­i­ty areas
  • Fol­lowed the mar­ket narrative
  • Did not let my low ener­gy lev­el be the excuse to make mistakes
• Negative(s)
  • Low ener­gy

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.