19062019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

19 Jun 19062019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

19062019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Skip cer­tain meals.
    • No din­ner today. 
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good even though I slept 7 hours. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release Jun 18, 2019
  • Actu­al ‑0.812M
  • Pre­vi­ous 4.850M
• EIA report
  • Today
  • Fore­cast ‑1.077M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 54.501
      • PVAH 53.908
      • PPOC 52.112
      • PVAL 51.700
      • Low 51.660
    • Where is the LIS?
      • Prev High area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t stay with­in the range
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF UT in effect how­ev­er might be a point for short-term reversal

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF U TC @ VWAP
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Slight­ly high­er high on HTF

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MACAS
  • Entry around 54.10
  • Tar­gets 54.50, 54.80
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTF200MABD
  • Entry around 53.90
  • Tar­gets 53.60
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 54.00 — 54.60
  • TTF R

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • TTF R in effect, 1 test of TTF200MA, stil above HTF UKC but flat on VWAP pos­si­ble BD, spread wider than usu­al at 42
  • 16:35
    • Drop to TTF R LKC pos­si­ble BD
  • 17:05
    • Lot of TTF A/D going on below LKC pos­si­ble absorp­tion for HTF move up
  • 17:35
    • Move back into TTF KC stalk­ing for a PB to TTFLKCCAS or a poten­tial TTF200MACAR
  • 18:05
    • TTF A/D going on but still with­in the KC so bull­ish on the short term but bear­ish on medi­um term
  • 18:35
    • PA slug­gish, spread still wider than usu­al at 42, no TTF200MABO still with­in KC
  • 19:05
    • TTF A/D move to prob­a­bly HTF50MA for an attack by bulls

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MACAS
  • Entry around 54.10
  • Tar­gets 54.50, 54.80
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTF200MABD
  • Entry around 53.90
  • Tar­gets 53.60
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 54.00 — 54.60
  • TTF R

	Date:	6/19/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	92
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	8	Hypos	5/5	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	5/5	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/5	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	2/5	4	Erro­neous Exits
	48	Total		44

• Week­ly Goal
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
    • I did well here. Didn’t take any trades on my 1st account but still took some exper­i­men­tal trades on my 2nd.
• Review

	Trade Info	Psy­chol­o­gy Journal
P/L ticks	Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
-21.5	1	0	1	(test) TTF200MACAS	5	NO	SO	stopped out	Moved Stop	I took notes into my PB for this par­tic­u­lar set­up in this paretic­u­lar mar­ket con­text so will do more reviews/replays
-8.7	2	0	1	(test) TTF200MALKCBD	5	NO	SO	stopped out	Stop too tight	For this par­tic­u­lar set­up I should have used a dif­fer­ent rule for my exit rules — as I did with my next few trades where I did obey those par­tic­u­lar rules — still learn­ing and took notes in my PB
8.9	3	0	0	(test) TTF A/D	5/10	YES	-	Hit 2.0 SD	-	-
5.6	3	0	0	(test) TTF A/D	5/10	YES	-	Hit 2.0 SD	-	-
5.5	4	0	0	(test) TTF A/D	10	YES	-	Hit 2.0 SD	-	-
-1.5	5	0	0	(test) TTFLKCCAS	5	NO	Scratched	scratched when i thought there was a momen­tum build-up in oppo­site direc­tion but this is the nature of the beast when A/D is going on because PA stayed with­in the tech­ni­cal lev­els of this set­up. Took note of this in my PB	-	-

• I’ve learned a lot from my exper­i­men­tal trades so I’m hap­py about that. I decid­ed to weigh my exper­i­men­tal trades vs my A/A+ set­up trades (which are on dif­fer­ent accounts any­way) differently
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 — 80 %
    • Even though we did have the BD we didn’t hit my tar­get and it was an A/D ses­sion instead.
  • Real-time analy­sis was good. I noticed PA not behav­ing accord­ing to my rules and switched to tak­ing exper­i­men­tal trades on setups I’ve seen before.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did well here.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I learned more about how PA behaves at cer­tain lev­els, used in my exper­i­men­tal trades, behave. Work­ing on build­ing my play­book more.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Keep tak­ing valid (exper­i­men­tal) trades. That’s the only way to build a track record worth analyzing
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Try­ing to force my believe on the mar­ket. I didn’t real­ly do much of that today but still. Just because a pat­tern points into a cer­tain direc­tion, keep in mind that these Points Of Inter­ests I have defined for myself are just that. Points of inter­est. PA at these lev­els still have to con­firm or deny the pattern.
• To do list
  • Work more on cat­e­go­riz­ing my PB setups + review
  • Change my DRC cri­te­ria to fit the ele­ments impor­tant to my per­son­al trading

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.