18072019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

18072019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Fol­low health plan
  • Per­form Dai­ly Tasks
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good but not as sharp as usu­al. Which is to be expect­ed Since I slept less than 8 hours for the last 2 days. Because of this I will give myself a 3 rating.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
  • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release Jul 16, 2019
  • Actu­al ‑1.401M
  • Pre­vi­ous ‑8.129M
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release Jul 17, 2019
  • Actu­al ‑3.116M
  • Fore­cast ‑2.694M
  • Pre­vi­ous ‑9.499M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • HHTF R LKC BD to 200MA in poten­tial exhaust­ed move from UKC in the last 2 days
• HTF
  • Prev. High 58.455
  • PVAH 58.455
  • PPOC 57.692
  • PVAL 57.213
  • Prev. Low 56.334
  • Poten­tial anoth­er HTF D TT but this time it looks dif­fer­ent and could be a D TC instead
• TTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Small PA range bound on HTF 
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF D TC @ LKC / TTFLKCBD

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF D TC @ LKC
  • Entry around 56.80
  • Tar­gets 56.50, 56.35
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF D TT @ VWAPCAS / TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 56.95
  • Tar­gets 57.20, 57.35, 56.65
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • TTF R 56.40 — 57.05

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • HHTF200MACAS but pos­si­ble D TC @1.0 SD, HTF D TT @LKCCAS / D TC @ LKC, TTF200MACAR twice now but it could real­ly go either way. Since I have no strong sense of clar­i­ty I’m gonna look for clues and not focus on tak­ing trades. 
  • TTF200MABO to HTF50MABO attempt

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF D TC @ LKC
  • Entry around 56.80
  • Tar­gets 56.50, 56.35
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF D TT @ VWAPCAS / TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 56.95
  • Tar­gets 57.20, 57.35, 56.65
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • TTF R 56.40 — 57.05

	Date:	7/18/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	89
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	9	Ses­sion PECS	70%	7	Real-time analy­sis
	10	Hypos	2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Mar­ket Prep	1/2	5	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
	8	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	47	Total		42

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
1	0	0	TTF200MACAR	1	Scratched	Did not BD from LKC	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 — 100%
    • Did well here
  • Real-time analy­sis — 70%
    • I real­ized it was more prob­a­ble for either HYPO1 or 2 to play out and ini­tial­ly took a short trade based on 1 but scratched that after a lack of fol­low-through to the move. Then failed to switch gears into hypo 2 because PA wasn’t as clear. Then when the 1st part of the move hap­pened I was not in it and I let it go. Did well here to not act on FOMO. There was even­tu­al­ly a 2nd leg to the move which I was not famil­iar with but have doc­u­ment­ed it for my playbook. 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: I did well here although had a small dip after a meal and decid­ed to switch to a stand­ing desk to con­tin­ue. This helped. 
  • E: Did well here.
  • CS: Did well here besides that dip for a lit­tle bit. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • That I’m get­ting bet­ter at my approach to the mar­ket how­ev­er not there yet on exe­cu­tion. Progress, not perfection. 
• Positive(s)
  • Did well to be patient and not get ‘pulled into’ the mar­ket and trade every­thing I see. I do my best when I am very par­tic­u­lar on which set­up I take. The set­up that fol­lows the main nar­ra­tive of the ses­sion and not short moves here and there.
  • Did well to not react to FOMO. 
  • Trust that I am get­ting bet­ter in trad­ing based on the nar­ra­tive and can rid myself of all the noise and sub-par trades around this nar­ra­tive. If the move has hap­pened I am too late. Don’t fol­low. Focus on learn­ing on how to catch the move. Focus on clean­ly exe­cut­ing trades just like the one I scratched based on HYPO 1. This is my job. 
• Negative(s)
  • Besides fail­ing to switch gears to hypo 2 I did great. I will replay and ana­lyze as always. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.