18062019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

18 Jun 18062019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

18062019 Tues­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs. Espe­cial­ly after my trip to Tokyo will need some bal­ance days.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel bet­ter than yesterday
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Com­ing out today
• EIA report
  • Tomor­row
  • Fore­cast: ‑2.033

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 52.968
      • PVAH 52.694
      • PPOC 52.480
      • PVAL 52.046
      • Low 51.744
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 52.20 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • No TTF50MA & 200MABO
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF R in effect still

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • TTF200MABO = HTF200MABO
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Messy nar­row PA just above HTFLKC

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 52.25
  • Tar­gets 52.65, 52.90
• Hypo 2 Rota­tion­al 52.95 — 52.20
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 52.05
  • Tar­gets 51.95, 51.75, 51.20

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 15:05
    • Pos­si­ble HTFLKCCAS below TTFLKC thus pos­si­ble reversal
    • Spread wider than usu­al at 49
  • 15:35
    • TTF A/D at HTFLKC pos­si­ble absorp­tion, pos­si­bly indi­cat­ed by LTF R
  • 16:05
    • Spike up to TTF50MA but no con­fir­ma­tion of BO yet, pos­si­ble PB to VWAP for a TTF NT
  • 16:35
    • Pos­si­ble TTF200MABO
  • 17:05
    • TTF R in effect
  • 17:35
    • Stopped at TTFLKC
  • 18:05
    • Not much going on below TTF R 50MA
  • 18:35
    • HL @ TTF LKC no break down yet
  • 19:05
    • TTF R 50MABO low momen­tum pos­si­ble reversal
  • 19:35
    • NO BO from KC yet. TTF R 50MACAS + pos­si­ble 200MABO

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 52.25
  • Tar­gets 52.65, 52.90
• Hypo 2 Rota­tion­al 52.95 — 52.20
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 52.05
  • Tar­gets 51.95, 51.75, 51.20

	Date:	6/18/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	50
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS	30%	3	Real-time analy­sis
	9	Hypos	0/2	0	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	0/2	0	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	2/2	0	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	2/2	0	Erro­neous Exits
	47	Total		3

• Week­ly Goal
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
• Review

P/L ticks	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
-24.3	1	1	(exper­i­men­tal) TTF200MABO	5	NO	SO	stopped out	Did­n’t real­ize TTF R was in play	Cat­e­go­rize days that TTF R was in play and rewatch videos and review TTF R PB setups
-15.9	1	1	(exper­i­men­tal) TTF R LKCBO	5	NO	SO	stopped out
-4.8	1	1	(exper­i­men­tal TTF R LKCCAS)	5	NO	SO	stopped out

• When T1 did not hap­pen I should have been on guard that some­thing was up. I pro­posed a solu­tion to bat­tle this for next time. 
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • HYPO 2 — 90%
    • Instead of 52.95 we rotat­ed between 51.65 and 52.20
  • Real-time analy­sis was very poor today. I give myself a bit of points for rec­og­niz­ing when my trades were not valid any­more and I took my stops.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I thought I was OK but not as good as usu­al, bet­ter than yes­ter­day though so didn’t trade yes­ter­day. Because I didn’t feel opti­mal today I cut my siz­ing in half.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Re-affirmed that when mar­ket con­text isn’t clear that some­thing is going on, also indi­cat­ed by A/D pat­terns + PA not fol­low­ing levels
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Get good rest. If not, be more careful.
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Let social life get in my way of chas­ing my dream. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.