16082019 Friday — Trade Plan & Journal

16082019 Fri­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. Slept enough hours. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • Lots of AD between VWAP as R and 50MA as S
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 55.293
    • Prev. Low 53.741
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • WE might have start­ed HTF R and will be look­ing for con­fir­ma­tion in the form of a HTF R UKCCAR, but stay open for a poten­tial BO as well
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • Small PA slop­ing up with 50 cross­ing over 200and PA stay­ing above VWAP and 50

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF R UKCCAR (pos­si­bly overbought)
  • Entry around 55.25
  • Tar­gets 55.05, 54.80
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF R 50MACAS
  • Entry around 54.90
  • Tar­gets 55.25, 55.45
• Hypo 3 Short
  • HTF R Overbought
  • Entry around 55.45
  • Tar­gets 55.05
• Hypo 4 Short
  • HTF R 50MABD
  • Entry around 54.65
  • Tar­gets 54.25

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Small PA move from HTF LKC to UKC just had a bounce off UT VWAP near 200 area, wait­ing to see if we can con­firm a HTF R
    • TTF
      • TTF was in a messy UT and just broke it and 50 then a bounce off LKC
    • Bias
      • Unclear ATM how­ev­er it could be that we have more rejec­tion and thus sup­port at HTF VWAP so I am slight­ly more long here and we could see a BO
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF UKC BO to pos­si­bly HTF R Overbought
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • WE made a slight bounce of VWAP and still uncer­tain if there’s a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move
    • TTF
      • We had some rejec­tion of TTF R LKC whichc coin­cides with the bounce off HTF VWAP and have crossed 50 and might be set­ting up for a con­tin­u­a­tion of the move. 
    • Bias
      • Long
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Uncer­tain but we might see a move to HTF R Over­bought so will look for TTF to con­firm and pro­vide with poten­tial setup
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still the same
    • TTF
      • Look­ing more and more bull­ish, VWAP cross­ing over 50
    • Bias
      • Long
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • I’ll look for entry near a VWAP testing
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble HTF UKC BO in progress
    • TTF
      • We had a ral­ly over UKC and look­ing for signs of a con­tin­u­a­tion or reversal
    • Bias
      • Long but stay­ing open for short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Per­haps a TTF UT 1.0SD Continuation
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Maybe a HTF UK BO F?
    • TTF
      • After the shot ral­ly up we reversed back to now test­ing VWAP with pos­si­ble BD
    • Bias
      • Slight­ly short but TBH most­ly unclear on nar­ra­tive — will just sit here and doc­u­ment the session
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • None ATM
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF UKC BO F
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­bough S line pos­si­ble BD
    • Bias
      • Short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF R AD S line BD
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF UKC BO F com­n­firmed and we might be see a 50MABD as well
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD S line BD with 200MABD as well but we might be look­ing for a 200MACAR before con­tin­u­a­tion since VWAP hasn’t ‘caught up’ yet
    • Bias
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF R UKCCAR (pos­si­bly overbought)
  • Entry around 55.25
  • Tar­gets 55.05, 54.80
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF R 50MACAS
  • Entry around 54.90
  • Tar­gets 55.25, 55.45
• Hypo 3 Short
  • HTF R Overbought
  • Entry around 55.45
  • Tar­gets 55.05
• Hypo 4 Short
  • HTF R 50MABD
  • Entry around 54.65
  • Tar­gets 54.25

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/16/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	100
Process Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS
	10	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	50	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
1/1	10	Setups tak­en
0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	50	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
    • There were none but am work­ing on my mar­ket nar­ra­tive approach and will soon bring these over into the cat­e­go­ry of A/A+ setups just need some longer time of con­sis­ten­cy first. 
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • Did well here. I hit my tar­get even though the move dropped fur­ther. In hind­sight I could have noticed the move was gonna ‘dis­re­spect’ my first tar­get and go for the next tar­get but still hap­py I took it. There’ always next time and I’m still learning.
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
    • I think I did real­ly well here won’t you agree? 🙂 
• Review

Trade Idea	Pos.	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1	1	0	0	HTF UKC BO F	2	TP	Hit Tar­get
1	2	0	0	HTF UKC BO F (ADD)	2	TP	Hit Tar­get

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 100%
    • Even though hypo was cor­rect it was anoth­er day of when things ‘should’ hap­pen but don’t and I logged this for my play­book. What a great day. 
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • Did real­ly well here
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here
  • E: Did well here
  • CS: Did well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • My niche might be in the cor­ner of “When things ‘should’ hap­pen, don’t happen”.
• Positive(s)
  • Did well to spot the rela­tion between mar­ket nar­ra­tive and find­ing ‘clues’ on TTF to sup­port this. 
  • Did well to pull the trigger
  • Even though I was allowed to trade big­ger since this was an exper­i­men­tal nar­ra­tive I was trad­ing, I decid­ed to trade small­er to gain con­fi­dence in the move
  • Did well to not chase the mar­ket after the drop and look for more ‘clues’ to see if a con­tin­u­a­tion was in the works
  • Did great to spot there wasn’t a con­tin­u­a­tion but rather an exhaust­ed move too far away from VWAP to war­rant a con­tin­u­a­tion for the time-being
• Negative(s)
  • Not stay­ing hum­ble and doing a vic­to­ry-dance on mul­ti­ple occa­sions. Hap­py nobody saw me 🙂

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.