16082019 Friday — Trade Plan & Journal - Bear Market Trader
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16082019 Friday — Trade Plan & Journal

16 Aug 16082019 Friday — Trade Plan & Journal

Posted at 20:46h in Trading Plan by
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16082019 Fri­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat less carbs
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • I feel good. Slept enough hours. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
    • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • Lots of AD between VWAP as R and 50MA as S
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 55.293
      • Prev. Low 53.741
    • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
      • WE might have start­ed HTF R and will be look­ing for con­fir­ma­tion in the form of a HTF R UKCCAR, but stay open for a poten­tial BO as well
  • TTF
    • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
      • Small PA slop­ing up with 50 cross­ing over 200and PA stay­ing above VWAP and 50

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF R UKCCAR (pos­si­bly overbought)
    • Entry around 55.25
    • Tar­gets 55.05, 54.80
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • HTF R 50MACAS
    • Entry around 54.90
    • Tar­gets 55.25, 55.45
  • Hypo 3 Short
    • HTF R Overbought
    • Entry around 55.45
    • Tar­gets 55.05
  • Hypo 4 Short
    • HTF R 50MABD
    • Entry around 54.65
    • Tar­gets 54.25

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
    • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Small PA move from HTF LKC to UKC just had a bounce off UT VWAP near 200 area, wait­ing to see if we can con­firm a HTF R
      • TTF
        • TTF was in a messy UT and just broke it and 50 then a bounce off LKC
      • Bias
        • Unclear ATM how­ev­er it could be that we have more rejec­tion and thus sup­port at HTF VWAP so I am slight­ly more long here and we could see a BO
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • HTF UKC BO to pos­si­bly HTF R Overbought
    • 16:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • WE made a slight bounce of VWAP and still uncer­tain if there’s a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move
      • TTF
        • We had some rejec­tion of TTF R LKC whichc coin­cides with the bounce off HTF VWAP and have crossed 50 and might be set­ting up for a con­tin­u­a­tion of the move. 
      • Bias
        • Long
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Uncer­tain but we might see a move to HTF R Over­bought so will look for TTF to con­firm and pro­vide with poten­tial setup
    • 17:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Still the same
      • TTF
        • Look­ing more and more bull­ish, VWAP cross­ing over 50
      • Bias
        • Long
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • I’ll look for entry near a VWAP testing
    • 17:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Pos­si­ble HTF UKC BO in progress
      • TTF
        • We had a ral­ly over UKC and look­ing for signs of a con­tin­u­a­tion or reversal
      • Bias
        • Long but stay­ing open for short
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Per­haps a TTF UT 1.0SD Continuation
    • 18:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Maybe a HTF UK BO F?
      • TTF
        • After the shot ral­ly up we reversed back to now test­ing VWAP with pos­si­ble BD
      • Bias
        • Slight­ly short but TBH most­ly unclear on nar­ra­tive — will just sit here and doc­u­ment the session
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • None ATM
    • 18:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • HTF UKC BO F
      • TTF
        • TTF R Over­bough S line pos­si­ble BD
      • Bias
        • Short
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF R AD S line BD
    • 19:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • HTF UKC BO F com­n­firmed and we might be see a 50MABD as well
      • TTF
        • TTF R AD S line BD with 200MABD as well but we might be look­ing for a 200MACAR before con­tin­u­a­tion since VWAP hasn’t ‘caught up’ yet
      • Bias
        • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
          • What set­up am I going to stalk?

    Dai­ly Report Card

    Trade Idea

    • Hypo 1 Short
      • HTF R UKCCAR (pos­si­bly overbought)
      • Entry around 55.25
      • Tar­gets 55.05, 54.80
    • Hypo 2 Long
      • HTF R 50MACAS
      • Entry around 54.90
      • Tar­gets 55.25, 55.45
    • Hypo 3 Short
      • HTF R Overbought
      • Entry around 55.45
      • Tar­gets 55.05
    • Hypo 4 Short
      • HTF R 50MABD
      • Entry around 54.65
      • Tar­gets 54.25




    		Dai­ly Report Card



    Date:8/16/2019



    Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ / A setups



    Com­bined Score100



    Process Report Card (10 each)

    		10Ses­sion PECS

    		10Hypos

    		10Mar­ket Prep

    		10Dai­ly review

    		10Progress tow. week­ly goal

    		50Total






    Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
    100%10Real-time analy­sis
    1/110Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
    1/110Setups tak­en
    0/110Erro­neous Entries
    0/110Erro­neous Exits

    		50total



    • Week­ly Goal
      • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
        • There were none but am work­ing on my mar­ket nar­ra­tive approach and will soon bring these over into the cat­e­go­ry of A/A+ setups just need some longer time of con­sis­ten­cy first. 
      • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
        • Did well here. I hit my tar­get even though the move dropped fur­ther. In hind­sight I could have noticed the move was gonna ‘dis­re­spect’ my first tar­get and go for the next tar­get but still hap­py I took it. There’ always next time and I’m still learning.
      • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
        • I think I did real­ly well here won’t you agree? 🙂 
    • Review
    Trade IdeaPos.Entry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSizeRea­son to cover
    --------
    1100HTF UKC BO F2TPHit Tar­get
    1200HTF UKC BO F (ADD)2TPHit Tar­get
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • Hypo 1 — 100%
        • Even though hypo was cor­rect it was anoth­er day of when things ‘should’ hap­pen but don’t and I logged this for my play­book. What a great day. 
      • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
        • Did real­ly well here
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • P: Did well here
      • E: Did well here
      • CS: Did well here
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • My niche might be in the cor­ner of “When things ‘should’ hap­pen, don’t happen”.
    • Positive(s)
      • Did well to spot the rela­tion between mar­ket nar­ra­tive and find­ing ‘clues’ on TTF to sup­port this. 
      • Did well to pull the trigger
      • Even though I was allowed to trade big­ger since this was an exper­i­men­tal nar­ra­tive I was trad­ing, I decid­ed to trade small­er to gain con­fi­dence in the move
      • Did well to not chase the mar­ket after the drop and look for more ‘clues’ to see if a con­tin­u­a­tion was in the works
      • Did great to spot there wasn’t a con­tin­u­a­tion but rather an exhaust­ed move too far away from VWAP to war­rant a con­tin­u­a­tion for the time-being
    • Negative(s)
      • Not stay­ing hum­ble and doing a vic­to­ry-dance on mul­ti­ple occa­sions. Hap­py nobody saw me 🙂

    Feed­back?

    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

    T3chAddict
    t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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