16072019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

16 Jul 16072019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

16072019 Tues­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Start fol­low­ing my health plan. Start­ing today. 
  • Watch screen record­ing videos every day
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. Espe­cial­ly after get­ting some good news. Slept well last night. I think I might have slept a lit­tle too much since I got up grog­gy and I felt as if I could have got­ten up ear­li­er since I was in light sleep towards the end. I will lim­it my sleep, always, to max 8 hours. Maybe between 7 and half and 8.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • Return back into KC after we had a HHTF R Over­bought situation
• HTF
  • Prev. High 60.942
  • PVAH 60.611
  • PPOC 60.225
  • PVAL 59.912
  • Prev. Low 59.286
  • HTF made a move that looked like the start of a DT but how­ev­er PA below KC was small and inde­ci­sive and we returned back into KC dur­ing today’s AS
• TTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Check HTF
    • A steady messy TTF UT towards 200MA
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • TTF200MACAR which would be near the HTF50MACAR @ 2.0 SD

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1Short
  • TTF200MABO to HTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 59.90
  • Tar­gets 59.50, 59.30, extend­ed tar­get 58.70
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 59.90
  • Tar­gets 60.10, 60.35
• Hyp 3 Short
  • HTF50MACAR — TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 59.70
  • Tar­gets 59.50, 59.30, extend­ed tar­get 58.70

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • Pos­si­ble HTF 50/200MACAR as part of a HHTF PB to UKC before con­tin­u­ing down, TTF200MABO attempt, LTF R 200MABO attempt
  • The remain­der of the ses­sion devel­oped like a HTF50MBO attempt which could poten­tial­ly be a fake. I’ve seen this pat­tern before and now I know in what con­text to place this TTF pattern.

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1Short
  • TTF200MABO to HTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 59.90
  • Tar­gets 59.50, 59.30, extend­ed tar­get 58.70
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 59.90
  • Tar­gets 60.10, 60.35
• Hyp 3 Short
  • HTF50MACAR — TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 59.70
  • Tar­gets 59.50, 59.30, extend­ed tar­get 58.70

	Date:	7/16/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	100
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	10	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Mar­ket Prep	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	50	Total		50

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
1	-	-	(exper­i­men­tal) TTF R Overbought	5	Scratched	Lost con­fi­dence in set­up, was sec­ond-guess­ing myself and decid­ed I was just hop­ing so got out	-	-

• Lost con­fi­dence in set­up because HTF nar­ra­tive was con­tra­dict­ing the short I was in and decid­ed since I was sec­ond-guess­ing myself I had lost my con­fi­dence and thus scratched the posi­tion. The trade actu­al­ly lit­tle lat­er went in my favor but I decid­ed not to get back in out of FOMO since I had also lost my best entry as well as still being uncer­tain about the narrative.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 100%
    • I did well here.
  • Real-time analy­sis — 90%
    • I did well here although not too con­fi­dent about the pat­tern I start­ed sec­ond-guess­ing myself a bit so thought to return to be the sci­en­tist and just gath­er data. Which I did. There will be anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty for me to slay this beast. 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here. Slept long enough even though I went to bed lat­er than usual.
  • E: Did well here even though I felt like tak­ing a trade on every turn I decid­ed not to.
  • CS: Did well here as well. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • That mar­ket nar­ra­tive pat­terns hap­pen over and over and I need more cycles to go through them as well as review and replay these to gain more con­fi­dence in trad­ing them. 
• Positive(s)
  • Did well to back off after not hav­ing enough clar­i­ty on the narrative.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.