15082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

15082019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

• align with mar­ket narrative?

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF D TC 50MA
• Hypo 2 
  • HTF D TT 50MABO
• Hypo 3 Short/Long

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble HTF D TT 50MABO F because we have had fail­ure to BO and it looks inde­ci­sive. Smart mon­ey could be using this lev­el as an area to unload short positions
    • TTF
      • Lots of resis­tance at TTF R Over­bought 55.30 lev­el, basi­cal­ly flat here
      • Wait­ing for a BD of TTF R S line
    • Bias
      • Short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF D TT 50MABO F
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble 50MABO after all?
    • TTF
      • Have not bro­ken 55.30 yet
    • Bias
      • Short until we breach 55.30
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF D TT 50MABO F
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF D TT 50MABO F
    • TTF
      • TTF R Sup­port line got broken
    • Bias
      • Short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF D TT 50MABO F, tar­get HTF LKC
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­bly look­ing for sup­port at HTF LKC
    • TTF
      • Drop with bro­ken SD lines indica­tive of pos­si­ble rever­sal which would coin­cide with HTF LKC giv­ing sup­port for the short to medi­um term
    • Bias
      • Unclear at the moment, slight­ly long because of pos­si­ble rever­sal at this lev­el but will need more confirmation
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF LKCCAS TTF D TT
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Same ATM
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble HTF LKC BD
    • TTF
      • POs­si­ble TTF D TC VWAP
    • Bias
      • Short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF D TC VWAP to con­firm pos­si­bil­i­ty of HTF LKC BD
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble bot­tom at HTF R Over­sold level
    • TTF
      • Pos­si­ble TTF D TT with exhaust­ed move
    • Bias
      • Long but need more confirmation
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • None ATM
  • 19:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF R Oversold
    • TTF
      • TTF D TT LKCCAS
    • Bias
      • Long
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • None atm
  • 20:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF
    • Bias
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF D TC 50MA
• Hypo 2 Long 
  • HTF D TT 50MABO
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 54.70 — 55.30

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/15/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	75
Process Report Card (10 each)
	9	Ses­sion PECS
	10	Hypos
	5	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	6	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	40	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
2/2	10	Setups tak­en
1/2	5	Erro­neous Entries
2/2	0	Erro­neous Exits
	35	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
    • There were none although trad­ed great new nar­ra­tive so excit­ed to test and learn more to add to my A/A+ setups
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • I did wor­ry about this and my P/L reflects in a way that I would have been up so much more if I hadn’t cov­ered too soon. I am giv­ing myself a month or two to allow myself doing this while I focus on get­ting nar­ra­tive right and fol­low­ing it and less on exe­cu­tion. This is my next main focus of week­ly goal.
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
    • Did real­ly well here. 
• Review

Trade Idea	Pos.	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover
1	1	0	1	HTF D TT 50MABO F (exper­i­men­tal)	1	FOLP	My first time hold­ing a core posi­tion but when it hit my first tar­get I cov­ered togeth­er with the next posi­tion and did not respect exit rule
1	2	0	1	HTF D TT 50MABO F (exper­i­men­tal)	10	FOLP	see 1
1	3	0	1	HTF D TT 50MABO F (exper­i­men­tal)	10	Deliv­ery guy	act of god’ I guess… When this hap­pened I was in the mon­ey and even though I had stops in place I decid­ed to cover
2	4	1	0	HTF LKC BD (exper­i­men­tal)	10	TP	Hit Tar­get
2	5	0	1	HTF LKC BD (ADD) (exper­i­men­tal)	10	FOLP	At the time I was think­ing to take some risk off since I had 20 con­tracts in total (togeth with pre­vi­ous posi­tion) on the trade and closed 5 but I think it was actu­al­ly FOLP since I took the oth­er 5 off not too much lat­er only to see the mar­ket hit my would be TP level
HTF LKC BD (ADD) (exper­i­men­tal)	10	FOLP

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 100%
    • I did well here although I fig­ured out that this par­tic­u­lar nar­ra­tive is not quite like my ‘old’ approach would have dic­tat­ed. Learned the intri­ca­cies of a new nar­ra­tive that hap­pened to fit my ‘old’ nar­ra­tive approach. Super hap­py with this and get­ting bet­ter every time.
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • Did well here
• Exe­cu­tion
  • Trade 1, 2, 3, and 5 had FOLP already addressed
  • Trade 4 I missed my best entry because I wasn’t look­ing at my screen but then I gath­ered that the premise of the set­up was still valid (anoth­er trend leg com­ing up) so I entered anyway
    • Hap­py that I entered, very unhap­py I didn’t stalk the oppor­tu­ni­ty and missed my best R/R. Had I got­ten in there I would have almost instant­ly be in the mon­ey. Which is one of my lat­er goals to focus on. 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here
  • E: I had one out­burst get­ting annoyed with a tech­ni­cal issue I’ve been hav­ing on my PC but luck­i­ly I did not let it get in my way and stayed composed
  • CS: Did well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I learned that all the lev­els I have deemed to be of val­ue in my mar­ket nar­ra­tive approach have a flip side as well when things don’t go the way they ‘should’. Like Lar­ry Alintof said: “when things that ‘should’ hap­pen don’t hap­pen”. This is a valu­able piece of infor­ma­tion in the mar­ket nar­ra­tive. Instead of hold­ing on to your bias, look at why you don’t see con­fir­ma­tion of your bias but rather clues in the oth­er direc­tion. This is of course eas­i­er said than done. Anoth­er great day for the books. The play­book that is:) 
• Positive(s)
  • Took a first try on a core posi­tion which now that I think of it would have increased my 9% even more… Ah well… keep exper­i­ment­ing and see if it’s for you. Per­haps use sep­a­rate accounts. Take a posi­tion trade on one, take set­up trades on the oth­er. This might be inter­est­ing so will think on it some more. 
  • Took entries based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive even though I had missed the best entry. They don’t all have to be great trades as long as I fol­low mar­ket narrative. 
  • No video, social media, mes­sen­ger apps. Did great here. 
• Negative(s)
  • Did not stalk a trade because I wasn’t pay­ing atten­tion to the screen. I think I kin­da got com­pla­cent after hav­ing pock­et­ed some wins think­ing I don’t have to push for more. When I am on a roll (although now on a roll with actu­al pro lev­el ‘on a roll’ is way dif­fer­ent, I can acknowl­edge that) I should push it instead of get­ting complacent.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.