15 Aug 15082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal
15082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- R = Range
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- HHTF = Higher High Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
- AD = Accumulation Distribution
- align with market narrative?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF D TC 50MA
- Hypo 2
- HTF D TT 50MABO
- Hypo 3 Short/Long
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Only A/A+trade ideas based on good narrative on 1st account (4 points)
- Don’t worry about P&L, let the trade work out based on market narrative and have correct sizing(4 points)
- Forward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Possible HTF D TT 50MABO F because we have had failure to BO and it looks indecisive. Smart money could be using this level as an area to unload short positions
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- Lots of resistance at TTF R Overbought 55.30 level, basically flat here
- Waiting for a BD of TTF R S line
- Bias
- Short
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF D TT 50MABO F
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 16:35
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Possible 50MABO after all?
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- Have not broken 55.30 yet
- Bias
- Short until we breach 55.30
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF D TT 50MABO F
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 17:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF D TT 50MABO F
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- TTF R Support line got broken
- Bias
- Short
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF D TT 50MABO F, target HTF LKC
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 17:35
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Possibly looking for support at HTF LKC
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- Drop with broken SD lines indicative of possible reversal which would coincide with HTF LKC giving support for the short to medium term
- Bias
- Unclear at the moment, slightly long because of possible reversal at this level but will need more confirmation
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF LKCCAS TTF D TT
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 18:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Same ATM
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF
- 18:35
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Possible HTF LKC BD
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- POssible TTF D TC VWAP
- Bias
- Short
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- TTF D TC VWAP to confirm possibility of HTF LKC BD
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 19:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Possible bottom at HTF R Oversold level
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- Possible TTF D TT with exhausted move
- Bias
- Long but need more confirmation
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- None ATM
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 19:35
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF R Oversold
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- TTF D TT LKCCAS
- Bias
- Long
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- None atm
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 20:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- Bias
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 16:05
Daily Report Card
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF D TC 50MA
- Hypo 2 Long
- HTF D TT 50MABO
- Hypo 3 Rotational
- 54.70 — 55.30
Daily Report Card | ||
Date: | 8/15/2019 | |
Weekly Goal | Execute A+ / A setups | |
Combined Score | 75 | |
Process Report Card (10 each) | ||
9 | Session PECS | |
10 | Hypos | |
5 | Market Prep | |
10 | Daily review | |
6 | Progress tow. weekly goal | |
40 | Total | |
Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
100% | 10 | Real-time analysis |
2/2 | 10 | Setups Identified (inc. TEST) |
2/2 | 10 | Setups taken |
1/2 | 5 | Erroneous Entries |
2/2 | 0 | Erroneous Exits |
35 | total | |
- Weekly Goal
- Only A/A+trade ideas based on good narrative on 1st account (4 points)
- There were none although traded great new narrative so excited to test and learn more to add to my A/A+ setups
- Don’t worry about P&L, let the trade work out based on market narrative and have correct sizing(4 points)
- I did worry about this and my P/L reflects in a way that I would have been up so much more if I hadn’t covered too soon. I am giving myself a month or two to allow myself doing this while I focus on getting narrative right and following it and less on execution. This is my next main focus of weekly goal.
- Forward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
- Did really well here.
- Only A/A+trade ideas based on good narrative on 1st account (4 points)
- Review
Trade Idea | Pos. | Entry Errors | Exit Errors | Type Trade | Size | Reason to cover | |
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | HTF D TT 50MABO F (experimental) | 1 | FOLP | My first time holding a core position but when it hit my first target I covered together with the next position and did not respect exit rule |
1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | HTF D TT 50MABO F (experimental) | 10 | FOLP | see 1 |
1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | HTF D TT 50MABO F (experimental) | 10 | Delivery guy | act of god’ I guess… When this happened I was in the money and even though I had stops in place I decided to cover |
2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | HTF LKC BD (experimental) | 10 | TP | Hit Target |
2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | HTF LKC BD (ADD) (experimental) | 10 | FOLP | At the time I was thinking to take some risk off since I had 20 contracts in total (togeth with previous position) on the trade and closed 5 but I think it was actually FOLP since I took the other 5 off not too much later only to see the market hit my would be TP level |
HTF LKC BD (ADD) (experimental) | 10 | FOLP |
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo 1 — 100%
- I did well here although I figured out that this particular narrative is not quite like my ‘old’ approach would have dictated. Learned the intricacies of a new narrative that happened to fit my ‘old’ narrative approach. Super happy with this and getting better every time.
- Real-time analysis — 100%
- Did well here
- Hypo 1 — 100%
- Execution
- Trade 1, 2, 3, and 5 had FOLP already addressed
- Trade 4 I missed my best entry because I wasn’t looking at my screen but then I gathered that the premise of the setup was still valid (another trend leg coming up) so I entered anyway
- Happy that I entered, very unhappy I didn’t stalk the opportunity and missed my best R/R. Had I gotten in there I would have almost instantly be in the money. Which is one of my later goals to focus on.
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- P: Did well here
- E: I had one outburst getting annoyed with a technical issue I’ve been having on my PC but luckily I did not let it get in my way and stayed composed
- CS: Did well here
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I learned that all the levels I have deemed to be of value in my market narrative approach have a flip side as well when things don’t go the way they ‘should’. Like Larry Alintof said: “when things that ‘should’ happen don’t happen”. This is a valuable piece of information in the market narrative. Instead of holding on to your bias, look at why you don’t see confirmation of your bias but rather clues in the other direction. This is of course easier said than done. Another great day for the books. The playbook that is:)
- Positive(s)
- Took a first try on a core position which now that I think of it would have increased my 9% even more… Ah well… keep experimenting and see if it’s for you. Perhaps use separate accounts. Take a position trade on one, take setup trades on the other. This might be interesting so will think on it some more.
- Took entries based on market narrative even though I had missed the best entry. They don’t all have to be great trades as long as I follow market narrative.
- No video, social media, messenger apps. Did great here.
- Negative(s)
- Did not stalk a trade because I wasn’t paying attention to the screen. I think I kinda got complacent after having pocketed some wins thinking I don’t have to push for more. When I am on a roll (although now on a roll with actual pro level ‘on a roll’ is way different, I can acknowledge that) I should push it instead of getting complacent.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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