15072019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

15072019 Mon­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Fol­low health plan
    • Still pret­ty much failing
      • Did not fol­low my sleep rou­tine. How­ev­er did not stay out too late on the week­end so I’m hap­py about that. Plus I worked both Sat­ur­day and Sun­day on trad­ing. Which I prob­a­bly should not have done since I do need my down-time but yeah. It worked out like that. 
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. I did have inter­rupt­ed sleep on the week­end because I had to get up both Sat­ur­day and Sun­day morn­ing but was then able to con­tin­ue sleep­ing so I do feel rest­ed but per­haps should be still cau­tious today.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
  • Let’s go with a 4 so half posi­tion sizing

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

• API report com­ing out tomorrow
• EIA report com­ing out Wednesday

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • PA is above UKC, so is VWAP how­ev­er PA crossed down VWAP so a shift in sen­ti­ment on the medium/long term is more prob­a­ble. No real rejec­tion of this lev­el con­firms this bias. 
• HTF
  • HTF is near­ing down on 200MA could find poten­tial sup­port there but for the short/medium term is look­ing bear­ish biased still.
• TTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • AS dropped to Prev low / HTF UKC / HHTF UKC and even though got pushed back up we still made a LL on the TTF after which we had a bounce so would say there is also a short bias on the short term
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?

• HTFLKCCAS
• HTFLKCBD into extend­ed move to 200MA
• HTF50MACAR

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 60.25
  • Tar­gets 60.05, 59.75, 58,75
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTFLKCBD
  • Entry around59.95
  • Tar­gets 59.75, 58.75
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 60.30
  • Tar­gets 60.50

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing?
  • HHTF is above UKC how­ev­er has crossed down from VWAP and is prob­a­bly show­ing signs of bear­ish sen­ti­ment, HTF is in the process of a pos­si­ble 50MACAR oth­er­wise a BO, TTF is hav­ing a lot of PA around the 200MA which could indi­cate a CAR or BOF
  • We had a TTFLKCCAS which I kin­da expect­ed to BD instead. We are now attempt­ing a HTF50MABO again and it looks like we might get it.
  • LTF U NT, TTF R LKCCAS to 200MABO, HTFLKCCAS to 50MABO, move away from HHTF UKC but still look­ing for signs of a rever­sal not because I am mar­ried to my bias but because I am not con­vinced that we will have enough breath in this move to break HTF 50MA as well as HTF UKC. 
  • HTF looks like a PB and pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion, TTF U TC @ VWAP and then what looks like pos­si­ble weak­en­ing in momen­tum but not enough clar­i­ty to be trad­ing on this infor­ma­tion. Flat is bet­ter than gambling. 
  • HTF is pos­si­bly set­ting up for a HTFUKCBO now that we are near­ing it and have remained above 1.0SD
  • No con­tin­u­a­tion to the HTF move (yet) dur­ing the EU session

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 60.25
  • Tar­gets 60.05, 59.75, 58,75
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTFLKCBD
  • Entry around59.95
  • Tar­gets 59.75, 58.75
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 60.30
  • Tar­gets 60.50

	Date:	7/15/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	95
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	10	Hypos	2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Mar­ket Prep	1/2	5	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	50	Total		45

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 
    • I did well here
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
1	0	0	TTF200MABOF	1	HIt Tar­get	@ TTFLKC	-	-

• There were 2 trade ideas today. 2 of my hypos played out. 1 and 3 both very well actu­al­ly. I trad­ed Hypo1 and then failed to pull the trig­ger on Hypo 3 which could have banked me more prof­its actu­al­ly. Live and learn. I am hap­py that I trad­ed the first idea and took my tar­get. What I did not like too much was that I trad­ed with too small siz­ing. The rea­son at the time was that I was a lit­tle unclear on the nar­ra­tive as lat­er was point­ed out by the mar­ket since we reversed and went in the oth­er direc­tion of the ini­tial trad­ing idea. So I guess I did well to be more cau­tious to reduce my siz­ing but I could have gone for half my allowed siz­ing and not ⅕ of it. 
• Even though I saw the nar­ra­tive chang­ing and the 2nd trade idea devel­op­ing I feel that I missed the move which tech­ni­cal­ly I did but after hav­ing been biased from the first trade idea I failed to pull the trig­ger. Guess I failed to switch gears and go the oth­er way. It was a good day for learn­ing more about my approach to the market.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 and Hypo 3 — 100%
    • This hasn’t hap­pened before that I have 2 trade ideas work­ing out. Inter­est­ing day to learn from. 
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • Did well here. Rec­og­nized a shift in sen­ti­ment even though there seemed to be momen­tum behind the move and enough space for the move to run based on HTF nar­ra­tive, we failed to do so (for now)
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Had a full night rest. Did well here. 
  • E: Did well here.
  • CS: DId well here as well even though I missed the 2nd trade idea. 
• Positive(s)
  • I did well to not chase the mar­ket after I saw that I missed the best entry on the sec­ond trade idea. 
  • DId well to not beat myself over too much on not hav­ing big­ger siz­ing on the 1 trade idea and not have tak­en the 2nd. 
• Negative(s)
  • Did not switch gears and trade the 2nd trade idea. This was most­ly due to a lack of clar­i­ty in the pat­tern devel­op­ing and I will con­tin­ue my efforts on back­test­ing and ana­lyz­ing his­tor­i­cal data from sim­i­lar mar­ket context. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.