15 Jul 15072019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal
15072019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- Follow health plan
- Still pretty much failing
- Did not follow my sleep routine. However did not stay out too late on the weekend so I’m happy about that. Plus I worked both Saturday and Sunday on trading. Which I probably should not have done since I do need my down-time but yeah. It worked out like that.
- Still pretty much failing
- Follow health plan
- How do you feel? Have you recently had a break of daily routine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insufficient sleep?
- I feel good. I did have interrupted sleep on the weekend because I had to get up both Saturday and Sunday morning but was then able to continue sleeping so I do feel rested but perhaps should be still cautious today.
- How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quarter position 4= half position 5= full position
- Let’s go with a 4 so half position sizing
Market Prep
Intraweek Fundamentals
- API report coming out tomorrow
- EIA report coming out Wednesday
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HHTF
- PA is above UKC, so is VWAP however PA crossed down VWAP so a shift in sentiment on the medium/long term is more probable. No real rejection of this level confirms this bias.
- HTF
- HTF is nearing down on 200MA could find potential support there but for the short/medium term is looking bearish biased still.
- TTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- AS dropped to Prev low / HTF UKC / HHTF UKC and even though got pushed back up we still made a LL on the TTF after which we had a bounce so would say there is also a short bias on the short term
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- HTFLKCCAS
- HTFLKCBD into extended move to 200MA
- HTF50MACAR
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF50MACAR
- Entry around 60.25
- Targets 60.05, 59.75, 58,75
- Hypo 2 Short
- HTFLKCBD
- Entry around59.95
- Targets 59.75, 58.75
- Hypo 3 Long
- TTF200MABO
- Entry around 60.30
- Targets 60.50
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on consistency in taking them. To have a better sample size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next level. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can analyze my trading and reassess if need be.
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- HHTF is above UKC however has crossed down from VWAP and is probably showing signs of bearish sentiment, HTF is in the process of a possible 50MACAR otherwise a BO, TTF is having a lot of PA around the 200MA which could indicate a CAR or BOF
- We had a TTFLKCCAS which I kinda expected to BD instead. We are now attempting a HTF50MABO again and it looks like we might get it.
- LTF U NT, TTF R LKCCAS to 200MABO, HTFLKCCAS to 50MABO, move away from HHTF UKC but still looking for signs of a reversal not because I am married to my bias but because I am not convinced that we will have enough breath in this move to break HTF 50MA as well as HTF UKC.
- HTF looks like a PB and possible continuation, TTF U TC @ VWAP and then what looks like possible weakening in momentum but not enough clarity to be trading on this information. Flat is better than gambling.
- HTF is possibly setting up for a HTFUKCBO now that we are nearing it and have remained above 1.0SD
- No continuation to the HTF move (yet) during the EU session
Daily Report Card
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF50MACAR
- Entry around 60.25
- Targets 60.05, 59.75, 58,75
- Hypo 2 Short
- HTFLKCBD
- Entry around59.95
- Targets 59.75, 58.75
- Hypo 3 Long
- TTF200MABO
- Entry around 60.30
- Targets 60.50
Date: | 7/15/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT) | |||
Combined Score | 95 | |||||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | |||||
10 | Session PECS | 100% | 10 | Real-time analysis | ||
10 | Hypos | 2/2 | 10 | Setups Identified (inc. TEST) | ||
10 | Market Prep | 1/2 | 5 | Setups taken | ||
10 | Daily review | 0/1 | 10 | Erroneous Entries | ||
10 | Progress tow. weekly goal | 0/1 | 10 | Erroneous Exits | ||
50 | Total | 45 | ||||
- Weekly Goal
- Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on consistency in taking them. To have a better sample size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next level. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can analyze my trading and reassess if need be.
- I did well here
- Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on consistency in taking them. To have a better sample size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next level. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can analyze my trading and reassess if need be.
- Review
Trade | Entry Errors | Exit Errors | Type Trade | Sizing | Reason to cover | Problem | Proposed solution | |
1 | 0 | 0 | TTF200MABOF | 1 | HIt Target | @ TTFLKC | - | - |
- There were 2 trade ideas today. 2 of my hypos played out. 1 and 3 both very well actually. I traded Hypo1 and then failed to pull the trigger on Hypo 3 which could have banked me more profits actually. Live and learn. I am happy that I traded the first idea and took my target. What I did not like too much was that I traded with too small sizing. The reason at the time was that I was a little unclear on the narrative as later was pointed out by the market since we reversed and went in the other direction of the initial trading idea. So I guess I did well to be more cautious to reduce my sizing but I could have gone for half my allowed sizing and not ⅕ of it.
- Even though I saw the narrative changing and the 2nd trade idea developing I feel that I missed the move which technically I did but after having been biased from the first trade idea I failed to pull the trigger. Guess I failed to switch gears and go the other way. It was a good day for learning more about my approach to the market.
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo 1 and Hypo 3 — 100%
- This hasn’t happened before that I have 2 trade ideas working out. Interesting day to learn from.
- Real-time analysis
- Did well here. Recognized a shift in sentiment even though there seemed to be momentum behind the move and enough space for the move to run based on HTF narrative, we failed to do so (for now)
- Hypo 1 and Hypo 3 — 100%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- P: Had a full night rest. Did well here.
- E: Did well here.
- CS: DId well here as well even though I missed the 2nd trade idea.
- Positive(s)
- I did well to not chase the market after I saw that I missed the best entry on the second trade idea.
- DId well to not beat myself over too much on not having bigger sizing on the 1 trade idea and not have taken the 2nd.
- Negative(s)
- Did not switch gears and trade the 2nd trade idea. This was mostly due to a lack of clarity in the pattern developing and I will continue my efforts on backtesting and analyzing historical data from similar market context.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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