15052019 Wednesday — HTF A/D — TTF R 200MACAS
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- No rice, noodles, etc.
- Had a little brown rice yesterday and some noodles today for lunch
- No rice, noodles, etc.
- How do you feel?
- I feel good.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 4
Market Prep
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Latest Release May 14, 2019
- Actual 8.600M
- Previous 2.806M
- EIA report
- Release Date May 15, 2019
- Forecast ‑0.800M
- Previous ‑3.963M
- Forecast changed from ‑2.125M
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
- High 62.24
- PVAH 62.24
- PPOC 61.847
- PVAL 61.253
- Low 60.829
- Where is the LIS?
- 61.30 area
- What didn’t happen?
- Market didn’t choose a direction
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- Market still balancing
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
- Define context
- TTF
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- Drop to Prev Low
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- Made a move up to PPOC (TTF200MABOF) and returned back to 61.40s
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea (not much clarity)
- Hypo 1 Long
- HTF200MABO
- Entry around 61.90
- Targets 62.20, 62.45
- Hypo 2 Short
- HTF200MABOF
- Entry around 61.90
- Targets 61.30
- Hypo 3 Short
- PVALBD
- Entry around 61.20
- Targets 60.90
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- Earlier during AS we BD from HTF50MA and made a PB then continued down towards HTFLKC
- TTF DT in progress but we hit PVAL possible break here. Wait for PB to TTFLKCVWAP area before considering getting in
- 16:35
- High momentum move to TTFVWAP then PB to VWAP enter TTF NT setup
- 17:05
- HTF and TTF are showing long-bodied candles that means something is going on best to stay out.
- 17:35
- Move to TTF LKC and reversal doji followed by drop according to Range bound trading. Did not get in because I can only take TTF NT and TC setups.
- Price is still moving fast
- 18:05
- PB to TTF VWAP 50MA LTF200MA
- 18:35
- Testing HTF LKC
- TTF below LKC might reverse here
- 19:05
- We reversed from TTFLKC and TTF50MABO but running interference at HTFVWAP
- 19:35
- Still below HTF VWAP TTF200MA doesn’t look like breaking anytime soon
- 20:05
- 16:05
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- HTF
- HTF move to LKC but not reached it yet
- TTF
- TTF DTC price back to 1.0 SD
- LTF
- LTFLKCPB
- HTF
- SL
- 61.341
- TP
- 61.121
- Trade Management
- High erratic momentum probably because we hit PVAL, scratched by covering manually covered at 61.225
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- HTF
- HTF LKC
- TTF
- TTF LKC VWAP PB
- TTF TC
- LTF
- LTF UKC
- HTF
- SL
- 61.405
- TP
- 61.184
- Trade Management
- Stopped out at 61.405
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- HTF
- Possible rejection HTF LKC and PVAL
- TTF
- TTF test 50MA and PB to VWAP LKC area
- TTF NT 10 @ 61.387
- LTF
- LTF drop to 50MA
- HTF
- SL
- 61.202
- TP
- 61.56
- Trade Management
- Scratched at 61.40
- scratched because erratic momentum and TTF making long bodied candles indicating something is going on and I should stay out for now
- Why? What do I see?
Daily Report Card
Trade Idea (not much clarity)
- Hypo 1 Long
- HTF200MABO
- Entry around 61.90
- Targets 62.20, 62.45
- Hypo 2 Short
- HTF200MABOF
- Entry around 61.90
- Targets 61.30
- Hypo 3 Short
- PVALBD
- Entry around 61.20
- Targets 60.90
Date: | 5/15/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT) |
Combined Score | 86 | ||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
9 | Pre-market routines | 3 | Hypos |
9 | Session PECS | 9 | Real-time analysis |
10 | Trading the process | 9 | Trade selection |
9 | Daily review | 9 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. |
10 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 9 | Risk Adjusted Returns |
47 | Total | 39 | |
- Weekly Goal
- Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later
- Review
Trade | Date | Session | Entry Errors | Exit Errors | Type Trade | Mistakes (if any) | Sizing | Hit Target? | Reason to cover |
1 | 15/5/20190 | EU | 0 | 0 | TTF TC | 5 | NO | High erratic momentum probably because we hit PVAL, scratched by covering manually | |
2 | 15/5/2019 | EU | 0 | 0 | TTF TC | 5 | Stopped Out | ||
3 | 15/5/2019 | EU | 0 | 0 | TTF NT | 10 | NO | scratched because erratic momentum and TTF making long bodied candles indicating something is going on and I should stay out for now |
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- In terms of hypos not so good. We traded in a range and smart money is probably positioning on the HTF which didn’t create opportunities for me with my setups. However, I did take notes of another setup that I am working on which is a TTF range bound setup which I will replay later.
- Real-time analysis was close to on-point. I noticed something was up but took my setup anyway with ½ sizing. This helped with learning how to take my stop and manually cover when things don’t move in a way it is “supposed” to.
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did well here.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I can be calm and collected when I follow my plan. Sounds easy! Ha 🙂 Progress. Not perfection.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Take notes on potential future setups now that I have time frames that seem to be working for me.
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- I could have been more involved concentration-wise. After I deemed the session to be in a range I found myself preoccupied with other things unrelated to trading.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.