15052019 Wednesday — HTF A/D — TTF R 200MACAS - Bear Market Trader
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15052019 Wednesday — HTF A/D — TTF R 200MACAS

15 May 15052019 Wednesday — HTF A/D — TTF R 200MACAS

Posted at 20:17h in Trading Plan by
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15052019 Wednes­day — HTF A/D — TTF R 200MACAS

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • No rice, noo­dles, etc.
      • Had a lit­tle brown rice yes­ter­day and some noo­dles today for lunch
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Lat­est Release May 14, 2019
    • Actu­al 8.600M
    • Pre­vi­ous 2.806M
  • EIA report
    • Release Date  May 15, 2019 
    • Fore­cast ‑0.800M
    • Pre­vi­ous ‑3.963M
    • Fore­cast changed from ‑2.125M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 62.24
        • PVAH 62.24
        • PPOC 61.847
        • PVAL 61.253
        • Low 60.829
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 61.30 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • Mar­ket didn’t choose a direction
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
          • Mar­ket still balancing
  • TTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • Drop to Prev Low
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Made a move up to PPOC (TTF200MABOF) and returned back to 61.40s

Trade Idea (not much clarity)

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • HTF200MABO
    • Entry around 61.90
    • Tar­gets 62.20, 62.45
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF200MABOF
    • Entry around 61.90
    • Tar­gets 61.30
  • Hypo 3 Short
    • PVALBD
    • Entry around 61.20
    • Tar­gets 60.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • Ear­li­er dur­ing AS we BD from HTF50MA and made a PB then con­tin­ued down towards HTFLKC
      • TTF DT in progress but we hit PVAL pos­si­ble break here. Wait for PB to TTFLKCVWAP area before con­sid­er­ing get­ting in
    • 16:35
      • High momen­tum move to TTFVWAP then PB to VWAP enter TTF NT setup
    • 17:05
      • HTF and TTF are show­ing long-bod­ied can­dles that means some­thing is going on best to stay out. 
    • 17:35
      • Move to TTF LKC and rever­sal doji fol­lowed by drop accord­ing to Range bound trad­ing. Did not get in because I can only take TTF NT and TC setups.
      • Price is still mov­ing fast
    • 18:05
      • PB to TTF VWAP 50MA LTF200MA
    • 18:35
      • Test­ing HTF LKC
      • TTF below LKC might reverse here
    • 19:05
      • We reversed from TTFLKC and TTF50MABO but run­ning inter­fer­ence at HTFVWAP
    • 19:35
      • Still below HTF VWAP TTF200MA doesn’t look like break­ing any­time soon
    • 20:05

    Trade Man­age­ment

    Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

    • T1
      • Why? What do I see?
        • HTF
          • HTF move to LKC but not reached it yet
        • TTF
          • TTF DTC price back to 1.0 SD
        • LTF
          • LTFLKCPB
      • SL
        • 61.341
      • TP
        • 61.121
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • High errat­ic momen­tum prob­a­bly because we hit PVAL, scratched by cov­er­ing man­u­al­ly cov­ered at 61.225
    • T2
      • Why? What do I see?
        • HTF
          • HTF LKC
        • TTF
          • TTF LKC VWAP PB
          • TTF TC
        • LTF
          • LTF UKC
      • SL
        • 61.405
      • TP
        • 61.184
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Stopped out at 61.405
    • T3
      • Why? What do I see?
        • HTF
          • Pos­si­ble rejec­tion HTF LKC and PVAL
        • TTF
          • TTF test 50MA and PB to VWAP LKC area
          • TTF NT 10 @ 61.387
        • LTF
          • LTF drop to 50MA
      • SL
        • 61.202
      • TP
        • 61.56
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Scratched at 61.40
        • scratched because errat­ic momen­tum and TTF mak­ing long bod­ied can­dles indi­cat­ing some­thing is going on and I should stay out for now

    Dai­ly Report Card

    Trade Idea (not much clarity)

    • Hypo 1 Long
      • HTF200MABO
      • Entry around 61.90
      • Tar­gets 62.20, 62.45
    • Hypo 2 Short
      • HTF200MABOF
      • Entry around 61.90
      • Tar­gets 61.30
    • Hypo 3 Short
      • PVALBD
      • Entry around 61.20
      • Tar­gets 60.90
    Date:5/15/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
    Com­bined Score86
    Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
    9Pre-mar­ket routines3Hypos
    9Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
    10Trad­ing the process9Trade selec­tion
    9Dai­ly review9Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
    10Progress toward Week­ly goal9Risk Adjust­ed Returns
    47Total39

    • Week­ly Goal
      • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later
    • Review
    TradeDateSes­sionEntry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeMis­takes (if any)Siz­ingHit Tar­get?Rea­son to cover
    115/5/20190EU00TTF TC5NOHigh errat­ic momen­tum prob­a­bly because we hit PVAL, scratched by cov­er­ing manually
    215/5/2019EU00TTF TC5Stopped Out
    315/5/2019EU00TTF NT10NOscratched because errat­ic momen­tum and TTF mak­ing long bod­ied can­dles indi­cat­ing some­thing is going on and I should stay out for now
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • In terms of hypos not so good. We trad­ed in a range and smart mon­ey is prob­a­bly posi­tion­ing on the HTF which didn’t cre­ate oppor­tu­ni­ties for me with my setups. How­ev­er, I did take notes of anoth­er set­up that I am work­ing on which is a TTF range bound set­up which I will replay later.
      • Real-time analy­sis was close to on-point. I noticed some­thing was up but took my set­up any­way with ½ siz­ing. This helped with learn­ing how to take my stop and man­u­al­ly cov­er when things don’t move in a way it is “sup­posed” to.
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • I did well here.
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • I can be calm and col­lect­ed when I fol­low my plan. Sounds easy! Ha 🙂 Progress. Not perfection.
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Take notes on poten­tial future setups now that I have time frames that seem to be work­ing for me. 
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • I could have been more involved con­cen­tra­tion-wise. After I deemed the ses­sion to be in a range I found myself pre­oc­cu­pied with oth­er things unre­lat­ed to trading.

    Feed­back?

    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

    T3chAddict
    t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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