14082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

14082019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less rice and noodles
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I had good sleep although it took me awhile to fall asleep. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • We had a UKC BO and resis­tance by 200MA if we don’t breach UKC we could see anoth­er leg up, oth­er­wise drop to VWAP
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 57.368
    • PVAH 56.761
    • PPOC 54.731
    • PVAL 54.248
    • Prev. Low 54.120
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • Pos­si­ble Exhaust­ed ral­ly prev day into U TT look­ing for UKCCAR to con­firm bias oth­er­wise a U TC 50MA
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • Small PA slop­ing down to test 200MA look­ing to BD with ease

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 56.30
  • Tar­gets 55.95, 55.40
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC 50MA
  • Entry around 56.10
  • Tar­gets 56.50, extend­ed 57.20
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 56.05 — 56.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 point

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing?
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble HTF U TT but no real CAR just fol­low­ing VWAP slop­ing down pos­si­ble long at 50MA intersection
    • TTF
      • TTF R
        • Look for long at LKCCAS or TTF R Oversold
        • PA very slow and spread around 49/50
    • Bias
      • Long unless we BD from HTF50
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF U TC 50MA
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble HTF U TC 50MA or BD
        • If there is a U TC then we could pos­si­bly see a UKCCAR
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD at LKC going on, mak­ing LHs and LLs look­ing bear­ish here
    • Bias
      • TTF look­ing bear­ish so unless we make a HL we are in bear territory
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF50MABD (exper­i­men­tal)
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • No Change ATM
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • 2 dojis at 50MA pos­si­ble HTF U TC 50MA
    • TTF
      • TTF R HLs
    • Bias
      • Long
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF R HL = best entry at bottom
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Small PA VWAP = Resis­tance 50MA = support
          • VWAP giv­ing good resis­tance, pos­si­ble 50MABD
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD messy bounces pos­si­ble BD
    • Bias
      • Unclear could be a HTF50MABD so slight­ly more short biased
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF50MABD in effect
    • TTF
      • Wait­ing for some bounce to CAR pre­vi­ous sup­port lev­el for re-entry short
    • Bias
      • Short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk? 
        • HTF50MACAR which could be a pos­si­ble LTF D TC 50MA
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Dropped from 50MA look­ing for sup­port pos­si­bly but not clear yet
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­sold but still below LKC
      • LTF show­ing a pos­si­ble D TT LKCCAS after an exhaust­ed move down which would be in line with reversal
    • Bias
      • Short but we could be set­ting up for a rever­sal as part of  HTF U TC LKC
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear ATM
  • 19:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF
    • Bias
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
  • 20:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF
    • Bias
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 56.30
  • Tar­gets 55.95, 55.40
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC 50MA
  • Entry around 56.10
  • Tar­gets 56.50, extend­ed 57.20
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 56.05 — 56.90

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/14/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	68
Process Report Card (10 each)
	6	Ses­sion PECS
	10	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	6	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	42	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
60%	6	Real-time analy­sis
2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
2/2	10	Setups tak­en
2/2	0	Erro­neous Entries
2/2	0	Erro­neous Exits
	26	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only A/A+trade ideas on 1st account (4 points)
    • There were none
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • I did not do well here because 1) I lacked clar­i­ty on this par­tic­u­lar set­up. Will go gack and ana­lyze, replay etc. 2) I had one big­ger than usu­al loss with a stop put very wide but got hit on high momen­tum drop (rea­son for wide stop was because of try­ing to let the nar­ra­tive play out
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 point
    • I did try out tak­ing trades on this exper­i­men­tal trade and shift­ed from long to short bias
      • My entries were not good so scratched most and the 2 that were I took prof­it on too soon try­ing to make up for the loss I incurred before. 
• Review

Trade Idea	Pos.	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
1	1	0	0	HTF50MA BD (exper­i­men­tal)	10	Scratched	TTF HL	-	-
2	2	0	1	HTF U TC 50MA	10	SO	Lots of AD going on	Moved Stop	-
2	2	1	0	10	Scratched	Scratched	-	-
3	3	1	0	HTF50MA BD (exper­i­men­tal)	10	Scratched	Scratched	Chased mar­ket did­n’t wait for bet­ter entry to present itself	Get more famil­iar with setup
3	4	1	0	10	Scratched	Scratched
3	5	0	1	10	TP	TPTS	Took Prof­it Too Soon
4	6	0	0	HTF50MACAR (exper­i­men­tal)	10	Scratched	Momen­tum loss at S	-	-
4	7	0	1	HTF50MA CAR A2P (exper­i­men­tal)	10	TP	TPTS	Took Prof­it Too Soon	Get more famil­iar with setup

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 100%
    • Did well here
  • Real-time analy­sis — 60%
    • I saw the fail­ure on long bias trade idea a lit­tle too late, I did not pay too much atten­tion to HTF VWAP giv­ing resis­tance and that we were unable to breach. After my wide stop got tak­en out I saw the fail­ure (obvi­ous­ly clear at this point) and shift­ed to short bias
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here
  • E: The stop made me lose my tem­per and I went for a cig­a­rette to calm down
  • CS: I was focused on the screen the whole time, but because I held on to my long bias I didn’t see the ‘actu­al’ mar­ket narrative
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Let mar­ket nar­ra­tive lead you
    • Will review and replay and make med­i­ta­tion and visu­al­iza­tion part of routine
      • New PB for­mat: Write PB, visu­al­ize the same day, visu­al­ize all PBs of the week on the weekend
• Positive(s)
  • Shift from long to short bias (although a bit late)
  • Walked away after get­ting emotional
  • Made back most of my loss­es (the ses­sion isn’t over until it’s over)
  • Stuck to my (2nd) trade idea
• Negative(s)
  • Did not pay atten­tion to fail­ure signs
    • Addressed this
  • Chased the market
    • Although I wait­ed for a slight­ly bet­ter entry I could have cho­sen bet­ter entries — addressed this
  • Took prof­it too soon
    • Took prof­it to make back for my loss but if I had just let me TP tak­en out I would not have had a loss, bet­ter yet I would have closed the day in good profit. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.