14052019 Tuesday — HTF R LKC PVAL CAS — TTF 200MABO NT TC

14052019 Tues­day — Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • No rice and noo­dles etc. Brown rice is allowed. 
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good but not as sharp. I slept almost a full 8 hours. Tonight gonna sleep ear­ly as well. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • May 14th
• EIA report
  • Release Date  May 15, 2019 
  • Fore­cast ‑2.125M
  • Pre­vi­ous ‑3.963M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 63.434
      • PVAH 62.565
      • PPOC 61.707
      • PVAL 60.909
      • Low 60.765
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 61.10 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We weren’t able to BO from HTF UKC, looks like HHTF200MA ran interference.
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We had a big swing not break­ing out or down from either side indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble HHTF activ­i­ty so bet­ter be cau­tious still. HTF R is still in effect and volatil­i­ty could just be pick­ing up more.

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF200MACAR or BO
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • After the big drop from yes­ter­day we have been what looks like a HTF PB but since HTF R is still in effect I think this could be more like­ly part of a rever­sal than a HTF PB

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • Move up to and HTF200MABO to HTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 61.80
  • Tar­gets 62.20
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF200MACAR and drop to Prev Low
  • Entry around 61.70
  • Tar­gets 61.30, 61.05
• Hypo 3 Long
  • Drop to PVAL/Prev Low CAS into PPOC
  • Entry around 61.05
  • Tar­gets 61.35, 61.65, extend­ed 62,30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • We dropped from TTF200MA and then tried to retest once more but it held again. Now dropped to LTFLKC and pos­si­ble look­ing to drop fur­ther but we are near PVAL.
    • Big­ger TTF swings makes me think some­thing is going on and with­out clar­i­ty on direc­tion I will not take a position. 
  • 16:35
    • Still look­ing bear­ish how­ev­er I am also open for a rever­sal at Prev Low
  • 17:05
    • Made a bear­ish can­dle at TTFLKC VWAP area and dropped to pre­vi­ous swing low how­ev­er did not break it so it could still be pos­si­ble that a rever­sal is com­ing. We have not yet broken 
  • 17:35
    • TTF200MACAR and drop to TTFLKC how­ev­er still not con­vinced we not going to reverse here. I need to watch myself being biased and only trade my set­up. Wait for my set­up to arise and execute. 
  • 18:05
    • we still haven’t bro­ken TTF200MA and 50MA just crossed under.
    • HTF is look­ing like smart mon­ey is posi­tion­ing themselves
    • Price is very slow and not much going on in terms of the mar­ket decid­ing which way to go

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R LKC
    • TTF
      • TTF quick dou­ble touch of 2.5 SD pos­si­ble reversal
      • High momen­tum move into KC over VWAP
      • 10 @ Entry 61.118
    • LTF
      • 50MABO on high momentum
  • SL
    • 60.981
  • TP
    • 61.420
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • There were high momen­tum push­es to TTFVWAPBO how­ev­er momen­tum seems to have died out and I am look­ing to cov­er at a loss or get stopped out if momen­tum doesn’t pick up.
    • Stopped out at 60.948

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R LKC below VWAP
    • TTF
      • TTF TC
      • TTF200MACAR
      • 10 @ Entry 61.087
    • LTF
      • LTF200MACAR
  • SL
    • 61.273
  • TP
    • 60.75
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at LTF VWAP 61.064 when momen­tum lacked.

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R LKC
    • TTF
      • TTF UT
      • TTF200MABO attempt
      • 2 @ Entry 61.162
    • LTF
      • LTF200MAPB
  • SL
    • Soft 60.996
    • Hard 60.881
  • TP
    • 61.55
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • TTF PB to 1.0 SD 
    • TTF200MABO attempt still in effect unless we drop to TTF VWAP where I have my SL
    • Cov­ered at TTF VWAP at 61.003

• T4
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R LKC pos­si­ble PVAH CAS
    • TTF
      • TTF200MAPB
      • 10 @ entry 61.234
    • LTF
      • LTFUKCPB
  • SL
    • 61.05 at TTF VWAP
  • TP
    • 61.35 at TTFUKC
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 61.281 at HTF 1.0 SD near TTF UKC

• T5
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF200MABO attempt
    • TTF
      • TTF TC PB to 1.0 SD
      • 5 @ entry 61.909
    • LTF
      • PB to UKC VWAP
  • SL
    • 61.661 at
  • TP
    • 61.35 at TTFUKC
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • If LTF50MA breaks I’m gonna cov­er at a loss. 
    • Cov­ered at 61.788 because we are get­ting close to NY open and liq­uid­i­ty will come in but prob­a­bly before that we will drop to TTF UKC VWAP area so decid­ed to cov­er. Although I do think that we will go high­er lat­er on. 

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • Move up to and HTF200MABO to HTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 61.80
  • Tar­gets 62.20
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF200MACAR and drop to Prev Low
  • Entry around 61.70
  • Tar­gets 61.30, 61.05
• Hypo 3 Long
  • Drop to PVAL/Prev Low CAS into PPOC
  • Entry around 61.05
  • Tar­gets 61.35, 61.65, extend­ed 62,30

Date:	5/14/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
Com­bined Score	73
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-mar­ket routines	8	Hypos
8	Ses­sion PECS	7	Real-time analy­sis
7	Trad­ing the process	4	Trade selec­tion
10	Dai­ly review	6	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
6	Progress toward Week­ly goal	8	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
40	Total	33

• Week­ly Goal
  • Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC / A setups (TTF NT) to build track record
• Review
  • I took 5 trades today
  • Trade 1
    • TTF TT (B/C set­up) and thus should not have tak­en this one
    • Real­ized mar­ket was behav­ing ‘dif­fer­ent’ than what I’m used to see with a con­tin­u­a­tion move and thus was more like­ly to bot­tom and reverse. Although, I should not have tak­en this one since it is not an A+/A setup.
    • Rea­sons why I did take it
      • I went in with ⅕ of nor­mal size think­ing I will give it extra room to devel­op which was good. How­ev­er, I put the SL too tight and got stopped out. (Just real­ized look­ing back that I went in with my full size instead of ⅕ will pay atten­tion to that next time)
      • Although it even­tu­al­ly turned into a big move my way I should have wait­ed for the set­up to tran­si­tion from TT to NT after we had a PB (trade 4)
  • Trade 2
    • TTF TC
    • After I botched up the first one I went back to my orig­i­nal rules and when I saw a rejec­tion in line with the TC set­up I went short
    • I quick­ly cov­ered though when momen­tum dried up and we failed to make a TTF LL (accord­ing to plan)
  • Trade 3
    • TTF NT
    • I messed up the entry and should have wait­ed for the PB before entering
    • Rea­son for mess­ing up is because there was high momen­tum lead­ing up to TTF200MA which made me think we we’re gonna break out. Good thing I went in with ⅕ of my nor­mal siz­ing. Obvi­ous­ly it didn’t go my way and I got stopped out. The point I was stopped out should have been my next entry (trade 4) or I should have put my stop wider which I don’t agree with. I should have wait­ed for a bet­ter entry instead of act­ing on FOMO.
  • Trade 4
    • TTF NT/TC
    • After botch­ing up yet anoth­er trade I missed my best entry but when I saw a TTF200MABO + PB I entered so tech­ni­cal­ly I would say that this is a TC setup
    • When we hit our first tar­get I cov­ered at a prof­it how­ev­er I should have noticed the high momen­tum and should have let it (if not half) run. I will replay this.
  • Trade 5
    • TTF TC
    • Price touched 1.0 SD and I went long
    • Price had moved on high momen­tum for some time and more than not I want­ed to recov­er some loss­es but I quick­ly cov­ered this when we broke 1.0 SD
  • All in all I lost 0.9% of my total account. It was worth the lessons I learned. 
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • HYPO 1 played out fair­ly well but it was my real-time analy­sis that was lack­ing with a com­bi­na­tion of tak­ing the wrong setup
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did fair­ly well here. Even though I made mis­takes I tried keep­ing a clear head and take my stops and eval­u­ate if I should alter my posi­tion sizing.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I learned that it is now clear­er to me to only trade my 2 setups. I will keep tak­ing these setups at least for a month to build a track record which I can ana­lyze to see what works best and where I need more work. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Focus only on TTF TC and NT setups
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Don’t take trades when there is a high momen­tum move. When you see one it means you have already missed your best R/R oppor­tu­ni­ty and thus you need to wait for the next best oppor­tu­ni­ty to arise before get­ting in.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.