13062019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

13062019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel OK. Def­i­nite­ly not as sharp. I think sleep­ing 2 days in a row of 7.5 hours is real­ly detri­men­tal to my sharp­ness. I need my 8 hours. Although before I would be fine on less but I think it’s relat­ed to my diet as well. Will check on that. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release Jun 11, 2019
  • Actu­al 4.850M
  • Pre­vi­ous 3.545M
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release Jun 12, 2019
  • Actu­al 2.206M
  • Fore­cast ‑0.481M
  • Pre­vi­ous 6.771M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 53.231
      • PVAH 52.642
      • PPOC 52.038
      • PVAL 51.769
      • Low 50.912
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 51.50 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t break the HTF DT instead we had anoth­er leg down. 
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Anoth­er leg in the DT which looks to be an exhaust­ed leg indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble reversal

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • TTF200MABO / TTF200MACAS
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • A HTF HL

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF200MACAS
  • Entry around 51.50
  • Tar­gets 51.20
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 51.75
  • Tar­gets 52.05, 52.60
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 51.10 — 51.70

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Big move up as part of HHTFLKCCAS into 50MA with a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the move since we haven’t ducked below VWAP yet.
  • 16:35
    • TTF VWAP cross down pos­si­ble rever­sal or PB
  • 17:05
    • Not much going on
  • 17:35
    • Not much going on
  • 18:05
    • Not much going on
  • 18:35
    • We didn’t have a TTF50MABD

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTFLKCCAS
    • TTF
      • (exper­i­men­tal) TTFUKCCAR
      • Entry 10 @ 51.25
    • LTF
      • LTFVWAPBD after trend move
  • SL
    • 51.69
  • TP
    • 51.17
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Scratched at 51.22

• T2
  • Look under

• T3
  • Look under

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF200MACAS
  • Entry around 51.50
  • Tar­gets 51.20
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 51.75
  • Tar­gets 52.05, 52.60
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 51.10 — 51.70

	Date:	6/13/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	94
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	8	Hypos	2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	2/2	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/2	10	Erro­neous Entries
	8	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	44	Total		50

• Week­ly Goal
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
    • Didn’t feel com­fort­able siz­ing up in A/A+ set­up because of lack in con­fi­dence and not clear read­ing of mar­ket con­text and after a loss I felt I should be more care­ful so decreased my siz­ing a bit more.
• Review

P/L ticks	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution	Action
3	0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) TTFUKCCAR	10	NO	Scratched	Real­ized I should not have tak­en this trade because the mar­ket con­text indi­cat­ed a pos­si­ble move up (which OMG.… happened)	This was a trade I should not have tak­en because it was a low R/R trade fad­ing into a trend at a tech. level	this was an exper­i­men­tal trade and I adjust­ed my process into defin­ing this par­tic­u­lar set­up so I can steer clear of it lat­er but bet­ter yet use it as a set­up indi­ca­tor for the big move that followed	Write PB
-10	0	0	TTF D NT	10	NO	SO	momen­tum move in oppo­site direction	Should not have tak­en this trade either because even though tech­ni­cal­ly my entry rules on TTF were valid the mar­ket con­text was­n’t, mar­ket con­text is king	trade small­er when feel­ing tired and off — when feel­ing a 3 out of 5 use more cau­tion in sizing	Incor­po­rate a siz­ing scale under health sec­tion on mar­pet prep template
4.1	0	0	TTF U TC	5	NO	Scratched	PA too slow, no pick up of momentum	-	-	-

• T1: Exper­i­men­tal trade dur­ing the Asian Ses­sion see above for details
• T2: Dur­ing EU ses­sion see above for more details
• T3: Dur­ing EU
  • Good
    • Sized down after lack of confidence
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • HYPO 2 100% but since it hap­pened before the ses­sion start­ed I’ll give it a 80%
  • Real-time analy­sis was good
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I was feel­ing tired today and because of that I felt less sharp. I imple­ment­ed a process to cut siz­ing when I feel like this. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Anoth­er con­fir­ma­tion about mar­ket con­text and how it oper­ates with­in my per­spec­tive on the market.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Be con­fi­dent in trust­ing your own voice even if the oth­er voice that tells you dif­fer­ent is YOU 🙂 
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • I can’t be slack­ing just because I’m tired or what­ev­er. This is my life. No excus­es for slacking. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.