12162020 Premarket Prep GBPNZD

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 51 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if possible. 

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body test­ing W1-C‑S 1.89500 BASE (round number)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed high­er at D1 VWAP / D1-C‑S 1.89847 (near round number)
  • Price slow­ing down (after tak­ing out demands) on H4 fol­lowed by a Bear Engulf giv­ing H4-C-SD 1.89314 (com­ing from H4 QHi) although shar­ing line with demand
  • H4 Closed as a Bull Engulf into H4 QHi
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day brack­et
  • ADR: 1763
  • ASR: 1310
    • 33
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.89987
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.87947

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C-SD 1.89314 near VAH
  • W1-C‑S 1.89500 BASE just below H4 QHi
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Slight­ly large imbal­ance. With H4 clos­ing as a Bull Engulf pre­mar­ket and a slight­ly large imbal­ance we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. This would be aligned with the D1 nar­ra­tive of a pos­si­ble VWAP in DT Break Out and the return to W1 base lev­el. Con is trad­ing right into D1 demand. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Tak­ing out H4 sup­ply at 1.90002 (round num­ber) dur­ing IB. IB exten­sion up (momen­tum), mon­i­tor for sus­tained auc­tion. Pos­si­ble Low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day due to trad­ing right into over­head supply. 
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Medi­um time frame demand at VAH
  • Pre­ferred: Test VAH dur­ing IB, price action rever­sal, either IB exten­sion up or a failed auc­tion down.
• Hypo 3 — Swing Reversal
  • Pre­ferred: Pop the round num­ber (even though it would take out H4 sup­ply) fol­lowed by strong bear­ish price action. IB exten­sion down (momen­tum) and val­ue acceptance. 
• Hypo 4 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance, mon­i­tor for (quick) rotation

Addi­tion­al notes

• Brex­it talks are still on

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.89847 (near round number)
• W1-C‑S 1.89500 BASE
• H4-C-SD 1.89314

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.87971

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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