12082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

12082019 Mon­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • First meal can eat rice and noodles
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • Sat­ur­day stayed up very late and might have had insuf­fi­cient sleep on Sun­day but feel­ing good at the moment but let’s see how my ener­gy is dur­ing the session.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

• API report
  • Tomor­row
• EIA report
  • Wednes­day

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • We moved back into KC all the way up to 50MA and we might see a PB here before we have a 50MABO, although we could PB all the way to LKCCAS
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 54.741
    • PVAH 54.741
    • PPOC 54.278
    • PVAL 52.753
    • Prev. Low 52.261
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • We had what pos­si­ble looks like an exhaust­ed 200MABO with con­se­quent small PA back down over VWAP to UKC, pos­si­ble more down­side next tar­get could be 50MA area before set­ting up a pos­si­ble continuation
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF has made a near-touch of 200MA with an uncon­vinc­ing rejec­tion cross­ing over 50MA with now the 50 near­ing the 200, a pos­si­ble Bd for the short/medium term could be on the horizon.

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF U TT to 50MACAS
  • Entry around 53.95
  • Tar­gets 53.65
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC @ 50MACAS
  • Entry around 53.65
  • Tar­gets 53.95, 54.40
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF U TC @ UKC
  • Entry around 54.30
  • Tar­gets 54.60, 54.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Drop from HTF UKCCAS to 50MA poten­tial for more downside
    • TTF
      • AD under UKCCAS with then a drop well below LKC, PA still trad­ing with­in 1.0 SD, VWAP could pos­si­bly catch up with PA and we could see anoth­er drop but for now we might see a bit of a PB
    • Bias
      • Uncon­vinc­ing­ly short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
      • Short = TTF U TC @ VWAP, pos­si­bly at 50MA
      • Long = PA look­ing to cross VWAP as part of TTF D TT
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Dropped past 50MA now test­ing 200MA pos­si­ble more down­side on short term
    • TTF
      • PA has breached 1.0SD a few times and there is a rever­sal can­dle so regver­sal might be upon us how­ev­er need to wait for more con­fir­ma­tion before going long oth­er­wise the short bias is still in play
    • Bias
      • Short unless we can breach TTF VWAP
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF D TC @ VWAP
        • TTF D TT @ VWAPBO
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Noth­ing much going on unclear on narrative
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Noth­ing much going on unclear on narrative
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Noth­ing much going on unclear on narrative
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTFLKCCAS
    • TTF
      • TTF D TT @ LKCCAS to 50MA BO attempt
    • Bias
      • We are hit­ting HTF50MA so not sure if there’s a con­tin­u­a­tion to this move. I’m gonna stay out the rest of the ses­sion due to lack of clarity
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
  • 19:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Unclear
        • LKCCAS
      • TTF
        • TTF returned to 200MA
      • Bias
        • Unclear on nar­ra­tive so not tak­ing any trades.
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • None atm
  • 20:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF
    • Bias
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF U TT to 50MACAS
  • Entry around 53.95
  • Tar­gets 53.65
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC @ 50MACAS
  • Entry around 53.65
  • Tar­gets 53.95, 54.40
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF U TC @ UKC
  • Entry around 54.30
  • Tar­gets 54.60, 54.90

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/12/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	72
Process Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS
	6	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	0	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	34	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	8	Real-time analy­sis
1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
1/1	10	Setups tak­en
1/1	0	Erro­neous Entries
0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	38	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1	1	0	HTF U TC @ 50MA	1	SO	Stopped Out	Got in too ear­ly on front side of the move	Wait for more con­fir­ma­tion on big­ger drop moves
1	0	0	HTF U TC @ 50MA	1	Scratched	scratched when there was no con­vinc­ing sign of reversal	-	-
2	0	0	HTF200MA test	5	SO	Stopped Out	-	-
3	0	0	HTF200MA test	5	SO	Stopped Out	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 60%
    • I could have done bet­ter here. Should have real­ized that a drop would go fur­ther than the first tech lev­el. Took note of this. 
  • Real-time analy­sis — 80% 
    • I was slight­ly biased based on my hypo and didn’t base bias on MGI. This was prob­a­bly due to the fol­low­ing section.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Had less sleep over the week­end and that seeped in today
  • E: Did well here espe­cial­ly under the circumstances
  • CS: Could have been bet­ter. Luck­i­ly, I adjust­ed my posi­tion siz­ing down to match this. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Keep doing what works. Base your direc­tion on a clear mar­ket nar­ra­tive. This is where you do well. 
• Positive(s)
  • Down­sized sizing
  • Stopped tak­ing trades (after 2 tries) on the same idea, there were 2 ideas.
• Negative(s)
  • Did not weigh mar­ket nar­ra­tive as much as I should have and based trades most­ly off TTF which is a big no no
    • Took notes of it and will replay. Anoth­er rule that I imple­ment­ed is no tak­ing trades when I lack sleep. Earn the right to trade by being at your best. I can just sit here and observe the mar­ket tak­ing notes.
  • Got in on the front side of the move again with­out wait­ing for con­fir­ma­tion. This is not how I trade. Learn to be more patient. On the oth­er side it was good to trade small­est contract.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.