13 Aug 12082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal
12082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- R = Range
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- HHTF = Higher High Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
- AD = Accumulation Distribution
Health review
- Weekly goal
- First meal can eat rice and noodles
- How do you feel? Have you recently had a break of daily routine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insufficient sleep?
- Saturday stayed up very late and might have had insufficient sleep on Sunday but feeling good at the moment but let’s see how my energy is during the session.
- How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quarter position 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half position = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full position = 1st 50 2nd 10
- 4= half position = 1st 25 2nd 5
Market Prep
Intraweek Fundamentals
- API report
- Tomorrow
- EIA report
- Wednesday
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HHTF
- What is the market narrative?
- We moved back into KC all the way up to 50MA and we might see a PB here before we have a 50MABO, although we could PB all the way to LKCCAS
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF
- Levels
- Prev. High 54.741
- PVAH 54.741
- PPOC 54.278
- PVAL 52.753
- Prev. Low 52.261
- What is the market narrative and bias?
- We had what possible looks like an exhausted 200MABO with consequent small PA back down over VWAP to UKC, possible more downside next target could be 50MA area before setting up a possible continuation
- Levels
- TTF
- Does the Asian session show clues that align with market narrative?
- TTF has made a near-touch of 200MA with an unconvincing rejection crossing over 50MA with now the 50 nearing the 200, a possible Bd for the short/medium term could be on the horizon.
- Does the Asian session show clues that align with market narrative?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF U TT to 50MACAS
- Entry around 53.95
- Targets 53.65
- Hypo 2 Long
- HTF U TC @ 50MACAS
- Entry around 53.65
- Targets 53.95, 54.40
- Hypo 3 Long
- HTF U TC @ UKC
- Entry around 54.30
- Targets 54.60, 54.90
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
- Forward test experimental trades
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:35
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Drop from HTF UKCCAS to 50MA potential for more downside
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- AD under UKCCAS with then a drop well below LKC, PA still trading within 1.0 SD, VWAP could possibly catch up with PA and we could see another drop but for now we might see a bit of a PB
- Bias
- Unconvincingly short
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- Short = TTF U TC @ VWAP, possibly at 50MA
- Long = PA looking to cross VWAP as part of TTF D TT
- HTF
- 17:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Dropped past 50MA now testing 200MA possible more downside on short term
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- PA has breached 1.0SD a few times and there is a reversal candle so regversal might be upon us however need to wait for more confirmation before going long otherwise the short bias is still in play
- Bias
- Short unless we can breach TTF VWAP
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- TTF D TC @ VWAP
- TTF D TT @ VWAPBO
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 17:35
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Nothing much going on unclear on narrative
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF
- 18:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Nothing much going on unclear on narrative
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF
- 18:35
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Nothing much going on unclear on narrative
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF
- 19:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- HTFLKCCAS
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- TTF D TT @ LKCCAS to 50MA BO attempt
- Bias
- We are hitting HTF50MA so not sure if there’s a continuation to this move. I’m gonna stay out the rest of the session due to lack of clarity
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 19:35
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Unclear
- LKCCAS
- TTF
- TTF returned to 200MA
- Bias
- Unclear on narrative so not taking any trades.
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- None atm
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF
- 20:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- Bias
- Opportunity (if any)
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- HTF
- 16:35
Daily Report Card
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF U TT to 50MACAS
- Entry around 53.95
- Targets 53.65
- Hypo 2 Long
- HTF U TC @ 50MACAS
- Entry around 53.65
- Targets 53.95, 54.40
- Hypo 3 Long
- HTF U TC @ UKC
- Entry around 54.30
- Targets 54.60, 54.90
Daily Report Card | ||
Date: | 8/12/2019 | |
Weekly Goal | Execute A+ / A setups | |
Combined Score | 72 | |
Process Report Card (10 each) | ||
8 | Session PECS | |
6 | Hypos | |
10 | Market Prep | |
10 | Daily review | |
0 | Progress tow. weekly goal | |
34 | Total | |
Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
100% | 8 | Real-time analysis |
1/1 | 10 | Setups Identified (inc. TEST) |
1/1 | 10 | Setups taken |
1/1 | 0 | Erroneous Entries |
0/1 | 10 | Erroneous Exits |
38 | total | |
- Weekly Goal
- Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
- Forward test experimental trades
- Review
Trade | Entry Errors | Exit Errors | Type Trade | Size | Reason to cover | Problem | Proposed solution | |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
1 | 1 | 0 | HTF U TC @ 50MA | 1 | SO | Stopped Out | Got in too early on front side of the move | Wait for more confirmation on bigger drop moves |
1 | 0 | 0 | HTF U TC @ 50MA | 1 | Scratched | scratched when there was no convincing sign of reversal | - | - |
2 | 0 | 0 | HTF200MA test | 5 | SO | Stopped Out | - | - |
3 | 0 | 0 | HTF200MA test | 5 | SO | Stopped Out | - | - |
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo 1 — 60%
- I could have done better here. Should have realized that a drop would go further than the first tech level. Took note of this.
- Real-time analysis — 80%
- I was slightly biased based on my hypo and didn’t base bias on MGI. This was probably due to the following section.
- Hypo 1 — 60%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- P: Had less sleep over the weekend and that seeped in today
- E: Did well here especially under the circumstances
- CS: Could have been better. Luckily, I adjusted my position sizing down to match this.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- Keep doing what works. Base your direction on a clear market narrative. This is where you do well.
- Positive(s)
- Downsized sizing
- Stopped taking trades (after 2 tries) on the same idea, there were 2 ideas.
- Negative(s)
- Did not weigh market narrative as much as I should have and based trades mostly off TTF which is a big no no
- Took notes of it and will replay. Another rule that I implemented is no taking trades when I lack sleep. Earn the right to trade by being at your best. I can just sit here and observe the market taking notes.
- Got in on the front side of the move again without waiting for confirmation. This is not how I trade. Learn to be more patient. On the other side it was good to trade smallest contract.
- Did not weigh market narrative as much as I should have and based trades mostly off TTF which is a big no no
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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