12072019 Friday — Trade Plan & Journal

12072019 Fri­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
-	8/7	9/7	10/7	11/7	12/7
Time bed yesterday	0:36	0:48	0:12	22:45	0:53
woke up	8:18	9:11	8:14	7:33	7:36
Hours sleep	7:42	8:23	8:02	8:48	6:43
Accord­ing to Fitbit	6:38	7:08	6:58	7:31	5:32
Awake	1:04	1:15	1:04	1:17	1:11
Times awake	39x	31x	28x	45x	29x
REM	0:36	0:47	1:03	1:13	0:43
Light	4:49	4:51	4:53	5:15	3:44
Deep	1:13	1:30	1:02	1:03	1:05
Sleep well?	4	4	4	4	3
Sleep Aid?	no	no	no	no	no
Alco­hol yesterday?	0	3 beers	2 beers	0	0
Wore Fit­bit?	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Per­formed Dai­ly Tasks?	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Per­formed Health Tasks?	no	no	no	no	no
Exer­cise yesterday?	no	no	no	no	no
Cof­fees yesterday	2	2	2	2	2
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no	yes	no	no
Water L	2	2	2	2	2
Vit­a­mins	no	no	no	no	no
Cig­a­rettes	3	3	1	0	1

• Week­ly goal
  • Fol­low health plan
    • Fail­ing mis­er­ably here but get­ting enough sleep at least.
    • Not fol­low­ing reg­u­lar time to bed
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good although haven’t slept close to 8 hours last night so might get tired lat­er. Will check this lat­er on.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 60.965
      • PVAH 60.848
      • PPOC 60.729
      • PVAL 60.490
      • Low 60.179
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PPOC Area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t con­tin­ue the HTF UT
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF R after HTF UT
        • HHTF UT @ 1.0 SD

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTFUKCCAR
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Hug­ging HTF50MA, TTF50MA cross up over 200MA

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Rota­tion­al 60.20 — 60.70
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTFUKCCAR
  • Entry around 60.80
  • Tar­gets 60.50
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTF50MACAS
  • Entry around 60.50
  • Tar­gets 60.70, 60.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 

Trades Tak­en

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 
  • TTF R 60.20 — 60.70
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTFUKCCAR
  • Entry around 60.80
  • Tar­gets 60.50
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTF50MACAS
  • Entry around 60.50
  • Tar­gets 60.70, 60.90

	Date:	7/12/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	93
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS	70%	7	Real-time analy­sis
	8	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Mar­ket Prep	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	46	Total		47

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 
• Review
  • The Trade idea I saw devel­op­ing that was accord­ing to my hypo 1 I trad­ed poor­ly due to my stops being based on ‘nor­mal’ mar­ket con­di­tions. Hence I got stopped out a few times on the same idea and I stopped pur­su­ing it to get a bet­ter under­stand­ing of the mar­ket con­di­tions first. This is why I have not count­ed my stops as erro­neous exits and actu­al­ly prid­ed myself to take my stops when they came and did not move them. I have doc­u­ment­ed sim­i­lar plays in my play­book which I will review this week­end. Still gonna wait and see how my trade idea devel­ops into the US ses­sion and per­haps trade it. I know that this kind of mar­ket con­text is messy to say the least but as I have seen this before there might still be an edge here and thus worth researching. 
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 80 %
    • It was actu­al­ly a TTF R over­sold sce­nario which is inter­est­ing to see develop.
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • 70%
      • Did OK although should have put my stops wider.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Although hav­ing slept a lit­tle less than nor­mal I feel good. 
  • E: After tak­ing 3 stops I did feel a bit anx­ious to start ‘mak­ing up’ for it which to be hon­est I did try but in a more edu­cat­ed way I guess. Failed with the mak­ing up with again too tight stops. So my real-time analy­sis should go down more (just adjust­ed from 90 to 70%)
  • CS: I did fair­ly OK here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • To be more patient in my assess­ment and 
• Positive(s)
  • Backed off after 3 stops
  • Saw the move to tar­get but not nec­es­sar­i­ly ‘the route’
  • Low­ered siz­ing in con­se­quent efforts to trade the idea.
• Negative(s)
  • Could have been more care­ful with my approach. I’ll go back and review.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.