12062019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

12062019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good although a lit­tle tired because I slept 7.5 hours so I could get up at 6 am.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release Jun 11, 2019
  • Actu­al 4.850M
  • Pre­vi­ous 3.545M
• EIA report
  • Today

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 54.186
      • PVAH 53.902
      • PPOC 53.674
      • PVAL 53.423
      • Low 53.094
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 52.70 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t stay above HTF200MA
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Although we have a TTF DT I am think­ing that this is pos­si­bly a ‘load up’ phase to even­tu­al­ly turn higher.

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF D TC
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • We trad­ed low­er in a TTF DT with a short-term rever­sal to pos­si­bly set up a high­er momen­tum drop

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTFUKCCAR
  • Entry around 52.75
  • Tar­gets 52.30, 52.05, extend­ed 51.80
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTF D TT
  • Entry around 52.30
  • Tar­gets 52.50, 52.70
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTFUKCBO
  • Entry around 52.80
  • Tar­gets 53.10

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Size up and have patience to only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Pos­si­ble HTF D TC
  • 16:35
    • Pos­si­ble TTF D TC @ 1.0SD
  • 17:05
    • Bull­ish Engulf­ing Pat­tern after exhaust­ed move down
  • 17:35
    • TTF D TT after an Engulf­ing Bull­ish pattern
  • 18:05
    • TTF LKC VWAP area
  • 18:35
  • 19:05
  • 19:35
  • 20:05

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF D TC
    • TTF
      • TTF D NT
      • Entry 20 @ 52.477
    • LTF
      • LTF D NT
  • SL
  • TP
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 52.393

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF D TC
    • TTF
      • (exper­i­men­tal) TTF D TC @ 1.0 SD
      • Entry 10 @ 51.94
    • LTF
      • LTF LKC
  • SL
    • 52.14
  • TP
    • 51.71
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Stopped out at 52.04

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTFUKCCAR
  • Entry around 52.75
  • Tar­gets 52.30, 52.05, extend­ed 51.80
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTF D TT
  • Entry around 52.30
  • Tar­gets 52.50, 52.70
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTFUKCBO
  • Entry around 52.80
  • Tar­gets 53.10

	Date:	6/12/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	86
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	8	Hypos	2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	2/2	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	1/2	5	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	1/2	5	Erro­neous Exits
	46	Total		40

• Week­ly Goal
  • Size up and have patience to only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
• Review

P/L ticks	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
8.4	1	1	TTF D NT	20	NO	FOLP	Cov­ered just below TTFLKC even though I ‘knew’ it would drop more	FOLP — Fear Of Los­ing Profits	cat­e­go­rize videos per set­up and replay videos, mea­sure ticks left on the table for not fol­low­ing exit rule
-10	0	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) TTF D TC @ 1.0SD	10	NO	SO	cross 1.0 SD	-	-

• T1
  • Bad
    • I did not do well on stalk­ing this trade. I was pre­oc­cu­pied look­ing at some­thing else that I could have missed this
      • Solu­tion: keep using price alerts
    • FOLP addressed above
    • Missed out on Real­is­tic Tick Oppor­tu­ni­ty (RTO) 26 ticks
  • Good
    • As soon as I saw the oppor­tu­ni­ty I took a few sec­onds to con­firm my think­ing and opened a posi­tion. Hap­py about this.
    • Sized up as part of my new goal so I’m very hap­py about that. 
• T2: This was an exper­i­men­tal trade that I took 
  • Good
    • I got stopped out even though down in ticks I’m up in mon­ey due to sizing
    • I learned more about mar­ket con­text today. When there’s a move on the HHTF PA on the TTF doesn’t fol­low reg­u­lar rules (I’ve seen this sev­er­al times before) I will take this into my PB.
    • Even though short­ly after I got stopped out it would have dropped in my favor, I didn’t get back in out of FOMO. 
  • Bad
    • RTO 25 ticks
      • I’m not feel­ing too bad about this because I am still learn­ing about this par­tic­u­lar setup.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • HYPO 1 — 80%
    • The entry and tar­gets were a lit­tle off but still good
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • Didn’t do well on stalk­ing my oppor­tu­ni­ty as men­tioned before but the rest I did well. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Piec­ing togeth­er more parts of the crude oil mar­ket context
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Keep fol­low­ing the process
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Cut win­ners too soon
    • I have put in place a process for this; I will cat­e­go­rize my screen record­ings and rewatch all the videos with the same set­up to grow more con­fi­dent in the set­up and my exit rules.
    • All in all I am still build­ing a track record of tak­ing my setups so focus is more on entries than exits but I will con­tin­u­ous­ly work on them as well. Just tak­ing my setups has net­ted me a prof­it for the last month till now. I know I am leav­ing too much on the table that is unnec­es­sary. I have also start­ed col­lect­ing the data on how the big moves was (of the trades I made the mis­take of get­ting out too soon) to see how many ticks I missed out on. I mea­sure the actu­al move and then what I could have real­is­ti­cal­ly taken. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.