10072019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

10072019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Mon	Tue	Wed
-	8/7	9/7	10/7
Time bed yesterday	0:36	0:48	0:12
woke up	8:18	9:11	8:14
Hours sleep	7:42	8:23	8:02
Accord­ing to Fitbit	6:38	7:08	6:58
Awake	1:04	1:15	1:04
Times awake	39x	31x	28x
REM	0:36	0:47	1:03
Light	4:49	4:51	4:53
Deep	1:13	1:30	1:02
Sleep well?	4	4	4
Sleep Aid?	no	no	no
Alco­hol yesterday?	0	3 beers	2 beers
Wore Fit­bit?	yes	yes	yes
Per­formed Dai­ly Tasks?	yes	yes	yes
Per­formed Health Tasks?	no	no	no
Exer­cise yesterday?	no	no	no
Cof­fees yesterday	2	2	2
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no	yes
Water L	2	2	2
Vit­a­mins	no	no	no
Cig­a­rettes	3	3	1

• Week­ly goal
  • Fol­low health plan
    • Failed again. I am con­scious of it though. I always start like this where I plan for it, then get con­scious of it. Then take action. Then quit. This last one is where I should make a change. 
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. Bet­ter than the last few days. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release Jul 09, 2019
  • Actu­al ‑8.129M
  • Pre­vi­ous ‑5.000M
• EIA report
  • Today
  • Fore­cast ‑3.081M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 58.727
      • PVAH 57.963
      • PPOC 57.500
      • PVAL 57.418
      • Low 57.373
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAH area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t stay under 58 lev­el and are look­ing to test 59.50 area
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Above HTF UKC 

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF U TC @ UKC
    • HTFUKCBD
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Fade move down after we had a HTFUKCBO dur­ing the last hour of the overnight ses­sion fol­low­ing the HTF 1.0 SD but look­ing as if los­ing momentum

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF U TC @ UKC
  • Entry around 58.65
  • Tar­gets 58.95, 59.35
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTFUKCBD
  • Entry around 58.60
  • Tar­gets 58.35
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.40 — 58.85

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 

Trades

P/L ticks	Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
-16.3	1	0	1	TTF U TC @ UKC (hyper­bol­ic)	1	SO	broke 1.0SD	Moved stop	It’s OK to have sev­er­al tries at 1 trade idea. Take your stop and then re-enter if need be.
-13.5	2	1	0	TTF U TC @ UKC	2	SO	broke 1.0SD	FOMO	Entered the trade out of FOMO. Should have wait­ed for a move back to TTF UKC before look­ing to enter
14.4	3	0	0	TTF U TC @ UKC	1/2	Hit Tar­get	near HHTF UKC	-	-
19	0	0	TTF U TC @ UKC	1/2	Hit Tar­get	near HHTF UKC	-	-
3.1	0	0	TTF U TC @ UKC	2	TP	took some risk off and gained prof­it think­ing it would drop again so I could add if it still looked bullish	-	-

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF U TC @ UKC
  • Entry around 58.65
  • Tar­gets 58.95, 59.35
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTFUKCBD
  • Entry around 58.60
  • Tar­gets 58.35
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.40 — 58.85

	Date:	7/10/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	100
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	10	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Mar­ket Prep	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	50	Total		50

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 
    • I did well here. Although my A/A+ setups don’t arise under these mar­ket con­di­tions, it has been good trad­ing on my 2nd account with exper­i­men­tal trades.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 100%
    • Did well here
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • Took exper­i­men­tal trades around 1 trade idea. Did well to see the nar­ra­tive and trad­ed around it. 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here. Slept enough last night and my ener­gy lev­el was good through­out the session.
  • E: Did well here. 
  • CS: Did well here as well. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Con­firm­ing that I’m a pat­tern based trad­er above all. My tech­ni­cal lev­els give me my ori­en­ta­tion around that pattern.
• Positive(s)
  • Did well to start off with small­er siz­ing to ‘test the waters’ and then to size up (but with­out exceed­ing my siz­ing rules)
  • Had good clar­i­ty after I saw the pat­tern. Again this hap­pened after the open­ing range which I worked into my trad­ing plan.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.