09052019 Thursday — HTF R — TTF UT TTF50MA200MABO

09052019 Thurs­day — HTF R — TTF UT TTF50MA200MABO

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • No rice, noo­dles, etc.
    • Ate chick­en from McDon­alds yes­ter­day which is obvi­ous­ly also not good. How­ev­er for the rest I have been skip­ping rice and noodles.
• How do you feel?
  • Although not hav­ing slept enough and my eyes are puffy I feel OK. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release May 07, 2019
  • Actu­al 2.806M
  • Pre­vi­ous 6.810M
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release May 08, 2019
  • Actu­al ‑3.963M
  • Fore­cast 1.215M
  • Pre­vi­ous 9.900M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 62.407
      • PVAH 62.201
      • PPOC 61.890
      • PVAL 61.563
      • Low 61.123
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAL area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t break away from HTF200MA and are still around its area. HTF R is still in effect. 
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF R is still in effect but seems to be near­ing a poten­tial pres­sure point since swings are get­ting small­er (apex) so a BO/BD might fol­low on the short/medium term

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • LISBD or BO
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • AS dropped to below the HTFTTF200MA and has been in a R since

Trade Idea (not too clear today)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • LIS BD to Prev Low before poten­tial­ly reversing
  • Entry around 61.50
  • Tar­gets 61.30, 61.10
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Hold LIS into PVAH
  • Entry around 61.65
  • Tar­get 62.20, extend­ed tar­get Prev High 62.40
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Hypo 1 with BD from Prev Low
  • Entry around 61.50
  • Tar­gets 61.20, 60.80

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:35
    • Looks like absorp­tion around 61.40 area
  • 17:05
    • Looks like we might be break­ing out from HTF50MA TTF200MA. Sell­ers not con­vinc­ing­ly com­ing in. LTF above VWAP and KC. Looks like a high momen­tum move. 
  • 17:35
    • We broke over the TTF200MA and then now just dropped back to what looks like a pos­si­ble PB but the angle of the PB is not to my lik­ing and com­bined with my ear­li­er assess­ment of the widen­ing KC I am not con­fi­dent in tak­ing a trade going long here so I won’t.
    • Buy­ers are look­ing to dry up just above the TTF200MA
  • 18:05
    • The PB to TTF200MA was a LTF TT and we now made a swing high to LTF UKC and that would sig­nal in the LTF R. Will be look­ing for a BD or BO from the LTF R. 
  • 18:35
    • Moved to new high. We did not BD from TTF200MA or TTFUKC TTFVWAP. Pos­si­ble run to HTF UKC before reversing.
  • 19:05
    • We just had a sud­den big drop from 62.15 to 61.95 and are poten­tial­ly look­ing to con­tin­ue down. I’ll be look­ing for a direct BD from TTFUKC TTFVWAP to a PB before con­sid­er­ing going short here. This could just be a HTF PB.
  • 19:35
    • We dropped to below TTFUKC but still haven’t bro­ken TTFVWAP yet. We are about to test LTF200MA so let’s see if we can break it. Not m,uch sign of buy­ers com­ing in but we just had some swings so def­i­nite­ly noit con­vinced yet that we are revers­ing. Could be pos­si­ble PB to TTF50MA (which is about to cross TTF200MA now)

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R price move up to HTF50MA
    • TTF
      • Doji under TTF200MA and KC widen­ing so took a posi­tion in the oth­er direc­tion accord­ing to range bound trad­ing. Entry 61.844
    • LTF
      • Rever­sal can­dles out­side 2.0 SD
  • SL
    • 61.956
  • TP
    • 61.699
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered when it didn’t drop fast enough at 61.816

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (not too clear today)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • LIS BD to Prev Low before poten­tial­ly reversing
  • Entry around 61.50
  • Tar­gets 61.30, 61.10
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Hold LIS into PVAH
  • Entry around 61.65
  • Tar­get 62.20, extend­ed tar­get Prev High 62.40
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Hypo 1 with BD from Prev Low
  • Entry around 61.50
  • Tar­gets 61.20, 60.80

Date:	5/9/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute Play­book setups
Com­bined Score	93
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-mar­ket routines	9	Hypos
9	Ses­sion PECS	9	Real-time analy­sis
10	Trad­ing the process	10	Trade selec­tion
9	Dai­ly review	10	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
9	Progress toward Week­ly goal	9	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
46	Total	47

• Week­ly Goal
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
    • Did well here
• Review
  • I did well to wait for my set­up to arise and when it did I took it. How­ev­er I saw that the mar­ket con­text was not sup­port­ing my set­up and decid­ed to cov­er it. Luckily. 
  • In hind­sight, I was think­ing that price had moved up to TTFUKC on high momen­tum so it was more like­ly to BO.Regardless, I took the set­up and quick­ly cov­ered when I was proven wrong.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 played out and am very hap­py with that even though I didn’t have much clar­i­ty on direc­tion of the mar­ket but I guess that is clar­i­ty in and of itself.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did well here not look­ing to over­trade. Just look­ing for pos­si­ble entries and wait­ing for price to hit that (or not)
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Patience is the key. I will go over this review tomor­row to see if I can spot more fac­tors that went into hav­ing a good trad­ing ses­sion although I scratched on 1 posi­tion I took. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Let mar­ket con­text lead (this will need more experience)
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • I did good today. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.