07082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal - Bear Market Trader
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07082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

07 Aug 07082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

Posted at 19:48h in Trading Plan by
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07082019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat 2 meals only
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • I feel good. A lit­tle bit of a cold still but most­ly gone
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
    • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • We stayed below VWAP but it looks like there is some high­er lev­el AD going on since some of the moves don’t make much sense
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 55.295
      • PVAH 55.219
      • PPOC 54.953
      • PVAL 54.225
      • Prev. Low 53.249
    • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
      • PA in Over­sold ter­ri­to­ry but no con­fir­ma­tion of actu­al­ly being over­sold, still below VWAP as well with no hard rejec­tions of any lev­els, bias is to the short side unless we can BO from VWAP and move back into KC but until then the sen­ti­ment is TC based. 
  • TTF
    • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
      • TTF is near­ing 200MA how­ev­er still 30–40ticks off, poten­tial for near-touch and con­tin­u­a­tion of DT but uncer­tain at this point. Again no big rejec­tions of tech lev­els seen.

Trade Idea (lack of clarity)

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF D TC @ VWAP
    • Entry around 53.45
    • Tar­gets 53.20, 53.05
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • HTF D TT @ VWAP CAS
    • Entry around 53.70
    • Tar­gets 54.10, 54.60
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • 53.20–53.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 15:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Pos­si­ble D TT to 50MACAR for HHTF D TC
      • TTF
        • LTF is show­ing bounces that could set­up for a LTF200MABO with could set up a TTF200MACAR or TTF200MABOF
      • Bias
        • Long on the short term short on the longer term
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF D TT in the form of a TTF U NT = long
        • HTF D TC @ 50MACAR = short
    • 16:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Pos­si­ble HTF D TT to 50MA
          • Look for con­fir­ma­tion as LKCCAS
      • TTF
        • Poten­tial TTF200MABO or CAR
      • Bias
        • Unclear at the moment. Wait for more con­fir­ma­tion on HTF D TT to go long
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • PB to HTF LKCCAS to con­firm D TT
    • 16:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • HTF D TT in process of being con­firmed by LKCCAS
      • TTF
        • Poten­tial TTF R 200MABO set­ting up by AD above 50MA and under 200MA
      • Bias
        • Long 
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF R 200MABO
    • 17:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • HTF D TT inval­i­dat­ed and bias has turned short
      • TTF
        • We dropped from TTF50MA to now LKC and look­ing to BD, if this is a D NT I will look for a D TC to get short
      • Bias
        • Short if we can break 2.0 SD on HTF oth­er­wise long bias accord­ing to pre­vi­ous trade idea
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF D TC how­ev­er PA is still far away from VWAP and they would have to come near­er to each oth­er. Wait and see. 
    • 17:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • No LKCCAS instead what looked like a HL @ 2.0SD but am think­ing that there is more to this move then it leads on at this point since there is no con­vinc­ing evi­dence sug­gest­ing otherwise.
      • TTF
        • TTF R went to over­sold and back into KC
      • Bias
        • Short but need more confirmation
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF R 50MACAR into a LKCBD
    • 18:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Still same
      • TTF
        • TTF R still in effect with AD above LKC
      • Bias
        • Short below 53.25 but need more confirmation
        • Long if we can hold above 53.50
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF R 50MACAR into a LKCBD = short
          • TTF200MABO = long
    • 18:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Pos­si­ble sup­port @ 2.0 SD in line with HTF D TT
      • TTF
        • TTF R AD LKCCAS to poten­tial 50MABO
      • Bias
        • Long
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF R 50MABO+PB
    • 19:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Unclear as the mar­ket hasn’t real­ly made a move yet

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (lack of clarity)

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF D TC
    • Entry around 53.45
    • Tar­gets 53.20, 53.05
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • HTF D TT
    • Entry around 53.70
    • Tar­gets 54.10, 54.60
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • 53.20–53.90





Dai­ly Report Card



Date:8/7/2019



Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ / A setups



Com­bined Score98



Process Report Card (10 each)

10Ses­sion PECS

8Hypos

10Mar­ket Prep

10Dai­ly review

10Progress tow. week­ly goal

48Total






Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%10Real-time analy­sis
1/110Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
1/110Setups tak­en
0/110Erro­neous Entries
0/110Erro­neous Exits

50total



  • Week­ly Goal
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
  • Review
TradeEntry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSizeRea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solution
---------
110HTF D TT @ LKCCAS5SOStopped Out--
100HTF D TT @ LKCCAS5TPHit Tar­get--
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo 2 — 80%
      • There was no fol­low-through to the move so left the nar­ra­tive for what it is and logged it’s characteristics
    • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
      • Did well here
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • P: Feel­ing better
    • E: Did well here
    • CS: Did well here
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • If there’s no fol­low through on the move and nar­ra­tive is unclear just stay out (which I did)
  • Positive(s)
    • Stayed out when nar­ra­tive was unclear
  • Negative(s)
    • After I ‘state’ that mar­ket nar­ra­tive is unclear I tend to be less focused and do oth­er things. I would like to stay ‘in-tune’ with the mar­ket even though this could also be a trap to trade when I shouldn’t. I will think about this some more. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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