07052019 Tuesday — TTF50/200MA BD TTF NDT

07052019 Tues­day — Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Don’t eat rice/noodles
• How do you feel?
  • Even though I slept more than 7 hours I still feel tired and not fit as I could be. I’ll need to have a good rest tonight as well to feel bet­ter I believe.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 2

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release Apr 30, 2019
  • Actu­al 6.810M
  • Pre­vi­ous 6.900M
  • Next Release May 7 (today)
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release May 01, 2019
  • Actu­al 9.900M
  • Fore­cast 1.485M
  • Pre­vi­ous 5.479M
  • Next Release May 8th
    • Fore­cast 0.744M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 62.979
      • PVAH 61.851
      • PPOC 60.516
      • PVAL 60.361
      • Low 60.087
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAH area 61.85
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t con­tin­ue the HTF DT and seem to have bot­tomed out and have com­plet­ed a HTF Rever­sal to set up a HTF200MABO

• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • Cur­rent­ly migrat­ed towards HTF200MA (62.50 area) after find­ing val­ue around 60.50 area and are look­ing to poten­tial­ly HTF200MABO to start a HTF UT
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • HTF200MABO although prob­a­bly a PB to HTF50MA is the best R/R
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • A gap down from TTF50MA to below TTFLKC and after­wards we trad­ed in a range bal­anc­ing with­in the TTFKC until we got near TTF200MA and we moved above the TTFUKC

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • Failed swing high into Prev High 
  • Entry around 62.65
  • Tar­gets 61.95, 61.50
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Drop to LIS and hold
    • Entry around 61.95
    • Tar­gets 62.30, 62.75
• Hypo 3 Short
  • LIS BD
  • Entry around 61.75
  • Tar­gets 61.50, 61.05

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • After Lon­don open we broke down from TTF200MA which is also HTF200MA and are now poten­tial­ly look­ing to con­tin­ue the TTF DT how­ev­er full bod­ied can­dles right above HTF50MA and LIS could mean pos­si­ble absorp­tion set­ting up a reversal
  • 16:35
    • We moved back to TTF VWAP but didn’t BO and formed a Doji there. How­ev­er we also didn’t drop fur­ther down yet either. After full bod­ied can­dles we now see some inde­ci­sion at this lev­el which could still indi­cate absorption. 
  • 17:05
    • TTF shows signs of more down­side how­ev­er there has been big push back at 61.90 lev­el but not big enough. We failed to cross LTF VWAP and I went short.
  • 17:35
    • LTF isn’t show­ing a sec­ond attempt at LTF50MABO and could be the start of a rever­sal here at LIS 61.85 area.
  • 18:05
    • We failed to cross TTF VWAP again and formed a few bear­ish can­dles how­ev­er it wasn’t fol­lowed by a big drop. Pos­si­ble rever­sal at this lev­el 61.90
    • Sell­ers are being absorbed it seems and we haven’t bro­ken 61.80 yet
  • 18:35
    • Not much going on on nei­ther buy­ing or sell­ing side
    • Crossed TTF VWAP but no big move yet
    • LTF is flat and is rotat­ing between KC near­ing LTF 200MA no direc­tion cho­sen yet
  • 19:05
    • We made a drop that is look­ing to BD from LIS
    • Price is still very sluggish 
  • 19:35
    • HTF shows pos­si­ble rever­sal can­dle below LIS and just above HTF LKC
  • 20:05

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Drop to HTF50MA
      • With bull­ish rever­sal candle
    • TTF
      • Full bod­ied can­dles below LKC pos­si­ble reversal
    • LTF
      • Big­ger push­es to the upside than down
      • Entry 62.128
  • SL
    • 61.887
  • TP
    • 62.228
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered when we didn’t have a TTF VWAP BO at 62.198

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Pos­si­ble HTF 50MA BD
    • TTF
      • LL after VWAP FBO
    • LTF
      • PB to VWAP is entry at 61.960
  • SL
    • Hard SL 62.188
    • Soft SL 62.09
  • TP
    • 61.65
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Over­all con­text I believe we will bounce back up but TTF shows more down­side on the short/medium term so I went short
    • In the mon­ey and want to cov­er but I need to be patient
    • Saw a doji on the LTF and cov­ered. Not hap­py with this. I need to let mar­ket con­text on HTF dic­tate tar­gets. Not LTF.

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:	5/7/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute Play­book setups
Com­bined Score	72
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-mar­ket routines	7	Hypos
7	Ses­sion PECS	7	Real-time analy­sis
7	Trad­ing the process	5	Trade selec­tion
8	Dai­ly review	8	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8	Progress toward Week­ly goal	6	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
39	Total	33

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • Failed swing high into Prev High 
  • Entry around 62.65
  • Tar­gets 61.95, 61.50
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Drop to LIS and hold
    • Entry around 61.95
    • Tar­gets 62.30, 62.75
• Hypo 3 Short
  • LIS BD
  • Entry around 61.75
  • Tar­gets 61.50, 61.05

• Week­ly Goal
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
• Review
  • I did fair­ly well today even though I did make some minor mis­takes but I am not going to beat myself up over them. I rec­og­nized ear­ly what my mis­take was and reassessed my posi­tion and cut it off. 
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo3 played out but lat­er than I had hoped
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • Did fair­ly well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • It is OK to cut off posi­tions when you real­ize you’ve made a mistake
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Be hon­est with my mistakes
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Sec­ond-guess myself

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.