05082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

05082019 Mon­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Do inter­mit­tent fast­ing at least 4 days
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel a bit under the weath­er and should watch out today.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

• API report
  • Tomor­row
• EIA report
  • Wednes­day, August 7th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • After we had an exhaust­ed drop DTT we moved back into KC with pos­si­ble LKCCAS
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 56.034
    • PVAH 55.912
    • PPOC 55.338
    • PVAL 54.929
    • Prev. Low 54.167
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • HTF Could go into R after we had a UKCCAR we would be look­ing for a LKCCAS to con­firm the R
    • Bias in LKC ter­ri­to­ry is Long
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • PA has trad­ed with­in HTF VWAP and could remain above this with­out actu­al­ly going for the HTFLKCCAS

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 54.75
  • Tar­gets 55.20, 55.65
• Hypo 2 Rotational
  • 54.90 — 55.70
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF R 50MABO
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.70, 56.- , extend­ed 56.50
• Hypo 4 Long
  • HTF R Oversold
  • Entry around 54.50
  • Tar­gets 55.30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 15:35
    • HHTF
      • PA not clean­ly respect­ing LKC, poten­tial for short to medi­um term downside
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • TTF R not entire­ly con­firmed, small PA slop­ing down no clear rejec­tion of sup­port lev­el as of yet, poten­tial for more down­side first
    • TTF
      • Bounce off 54.80 but no clear rejec­tion yet
    • Bias
      • If this stays the same my bias is towards the short side for now unless we find some support
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF LKCBD
          • short
        • But stay open for signs of a HTF R Over­sold to go long
          • Long 
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Small PA slop­ing down still no clear mar­ket move­ment yet
    • TTF
      • Bounces going down test­ing LKC at the moment
    • Bias
      • Short 
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTFLKCBD
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • No evi­dent rejec­tion of HTF LKC on the HTF yet
    • TTF
      • Push back on TTF from LKC to VWAP
    • Bias
      • Long if we can hold above TTF50MA
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Con­fir­ma­tion of long bias as TTF R 50MABO+PB
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still small PA slop­ing down with a doji can­dle that doesn’t look too valu­able at LKC, now if it were up at a resis­tance lev­el than it would have been
    • TTF
      • TTF R has kept below 50MA hence the still short bias for the moment, PA still slop­ing down with a rejec­tion at 50MA and some sup­port in TTF R over­sold posi­tion at 2.0 SD. Look­ing for some­thing more defin­i­tive though. Although the last swing high aws a short one we could see some con­dens­ing of pres­sure build­ing up for a poten­tial 50MABO
    • Bias
      • Short unless we break 50MA
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF50MACAR
        • TTF50MABO+PB
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • We made a move away from LKC but no real CAS in my opin­ion, pos­si­ble HTF50MACAR
    • TTF
      • 50MABO which turns my bias into long but will wait for a prop­er PB before con­sid­er­ing hop­ping on long. There could be a UKCCAR instead which would be in line with HTF 50MACAR
    • Bias
      • Unclear, wait­ing for con­fir­ma­tion of a hold above 50 or per­haps a CAR of TTFUKC or HTF50MA
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
      • TTFUKCCAR/HTF50MACAR
        • Short 
      • TTF50MABO+PB
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Test­ing 50MA pos­si­ble BO
    • TTF
      • Test­ing 200MA pos­si­ble BO
    • Bias
      • Long even though I took a short @ TTF200MA HTF50MA
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Wait for BO
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • We made a HHTF HL and have moved to HTF50MA how­ev­er no BO (yet)
    • TTF
      • Lots of AD @ 200MA and even though I took the CAR play it looks like there might be more upside
    • Bias
      • Long since we held above 50MA
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Wait for con­fir­ma­tion of TTF200MABO+PB to go long

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 54.75
  • Tar­gets 55.20, 55.65
• Hypo 2 Rotational
  • 54.90 — 55.70
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF R 50MABO
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.70, 56.- , extend­ed 56.50
• Hypo 4 Long
  • HTF R Oversold
  • Entry around 54.50
  • Tar­gets 55.30

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/5/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	99
Process Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS
	9	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	49	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
2/2	10	Setups tak­en
0/2	10	Erro­neous Entries
0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	50	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
Ses­sion	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1	0	0	TTF R 50MACAR +PB to VWAP	2	TP	Hit tar­get	-	-
1	0	0	2	TP	Hit tar­get	-	-
2	0	0	HTF50MA CAR (front side)	2	SO	Stopped out	-	-
3	0	0	HTF50MA CAR	3/5	TP	Hit tar­get	-	-
3	0	0	2/5	TP	Hit tar­get	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 90%
    • Tech­ni­cal­ly it’s a 100% but it didn’t hap­pen the way I would have liked but still iden­ti­fied and took posi­tions on it. 
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • Did great here
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Was feel­ing a bit under the weath­er so cut down on siz­ing accordingly
  • E: Did great here
  • CS: Did great here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • This was a great day for under­stand­ing the direc­tion­al cues in today’s session. 
• Positive(s)
  • ‘Lis­tened’ to the cues of the market
  • Switched gears and kept calm
• Negative(s)
  • Did well today. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.