05062019 Wednesday — HTF R Apex — TTF R
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- Eat less carbs.
- How do you feel?
- Feel good but something going on privately so should be extra careful today.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
Market Prep
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Latest Release Jun 04, 2019
- Actual 3.545M
- Previous ‑5.265M
- EIA report
- Release Date tomorrow
- Forecast ‑0.849M
- Previous ‑0.282M
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
- High 53.825
- PVAH 53.508
- PPOC 53.149
- PVAL 52.917
- Low 52.474
- Where is the LIS?
- PVAH area
- What didn’t happen?
- We didn’t start a new imbalance and market is currently balancing
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- Market is balancing with an apex forming so could be due for another impulse move shortly
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
- Define context
- TTF
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- Move below PVAL or above PVAH
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- Apex forming on HTF
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HHTF D TC
- Entry around 52.80
- Targets 52.50, 52.20, 51.75
- Hypo 2 Long
- HHTF D TT
- Entry around 53.60
- Targets 53.80, 54.40, 54.80
- Hypo 3 Rotational 52.60 — 53.50
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later but be open to experiment with TTF R setups
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- HTF R, TTF R, LTF R
- Looks like some TTF A/D going on below 50MA, possible BO
- 16:35
- TTF20MACAR + move down to TTFLKC, possible BD oir possible TTF R in effect. Still not much clarity, although HTF looks like a potential HTF50MACAR as well so slightly more bearish biased
- 17:05
- TTF R still in effect (seems tighter than usual only at 35 ticks height), no clarity yet
- 17:35
- Possible HTF50MABO but seems buyers lacking at TTF200MA, possible TTF R reversal
- 18:05
- TTF200MABO attempt but seems to be no buyers to pull through on move.
- 18:35
- TTF200MABOF Market still indecisive
- 16:05
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- HTF
- HTF R 50MABO
- TTF
- (experimental) TTF200MABOPB
- Entry 10 @ 53.31
- LTF
- LTFUKCPB
- HTF
- SL
- 53.08
- TP
- 53.56
- Trade Management
- Possible lack of buyers still since price is not moving as quickly but we haven’t dropped below TTF1.0SD
- Covered at 53.34 because of very bearish candle just above TTF1.0SD
- Why? What do I see?
Daily Report Card
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HHTF D TC
- Entry around 52.80
- Targets 52.50, 52.20, 51.75
- Hypo 2 Long
- HHTF D TT
- Entry around 53.60
- Targets 53.80, 54.40, 54.80
- Hypo 3 Rotational 52.60 — 53.50
| Date: | 6/5/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT) | |||
| Combined Score | 98 | |||||
| Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | |||||
| 9 | Session PECS | 100% | 10 | Real-time analysis | ||
| 9 | Hypos | 1/1 | 10 | Setups Identified (TEST) | ||
| 10 | Trading the process | 1/1 | 10 | Setups taken | ||
| 10 | Daily review | 0 | 10 | Erroneous Entries | ||
| 10 | Progress tow. weekly goal | 0 | 10 | Erroneous Exits | ||
| 48 | Total | 50 | ||||
- Weekly Goal
- Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later but be open to experiment with TTF R setups
- Review
- Took one experimental trade which I scratched. I did well though. I was a few ticks in the money and even though I was thinking there was no continuation to the move (which there wasn’t) I stayed in the move until I had more confirmation on my exit rule.
| Entry Errors | Exit Errors | Type Trade | Sizing | Hit Target? | Reason to cover | Problem | Proposed solution | |
| 0 | 0 | (experimental) TTF200MABOPB | 10 | NO | Scratched | very bearish candle just above TTF1.0SD | - | - |
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo 3 — 90%
- Real-time analysis was good. Saw that because we are in a HTF R apex we would have possibly no follow-through on moves.
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I was a little distracted with personal things but I didn’t let that get in the way of trading. Did well here.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I can stay calm and collected and don’t have to be emotional in the market.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Stick to my exit rules.
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Don’t take profits too soon. If the setup is valid it means that the setup has statistical qualities that over the long-term will pay out even though you take a loss.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.