04072019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

04072019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Tue	Wed	Thu
-	2/7	3/7	4/7
Time bed yesterday	21:39	22:02	21:55
woke up	7:41	6:23	6:59
Hours sleep	10:02	8:21	9:04
Accord­ing to Fitbit	8:11	6:57	7:36
Awake	1:51	1:24	1:28
Times awake	32x	36x	43x
REM	1:30	0:56	0:48
Light	5:55	5:15	6:24
Deep	0:46	0:46	0:24
Sleep well?	3	4	3
Sleep Aid?	no	no	no
Alco­hol yesterday?	0	0	2
Wore Fit­bit?	yes	yes	yes
Per­formed Dai­ly Tasks?	yes	yes	yes
Per­formed Health Tasks?	no	yes	no
Exer­cise yesterday?	no	no	no
Cof­fees yesterday	2	2	2
Inter­mit­tent fasting	yes	yes	yes
Water L	1.5	2	2
Vit­a­mins	no	no	no
Cig­a­rettes	no	no	1

• Week­ly goal
  • Fol­low my health plan. Broke my plan yes­ter­day by hav­ing 2 beers and 1 cigarette. 
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I’ve had a few nights of rel­a­tive­ly good sleep. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1 = don’t trade 2/3 =half posi­tion siz­ing 4/5 = full position
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• 4th of July holiday
• API report
  • Lat­est Release Jul 02, 2019
  • Actu­al ‑5.000M
  • Pre­vi­ous ‑7.550M
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release Jul 03, 2019
  • Actu­al ‑1.085M
  • Fore­cast ‑2.964M
  • Pre­vi­ous ‑12.788M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 57.467
      • PVAH 56.877
      • PPOC 56.555
      • PVAL 56.306
      • Low 56.108
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAH area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • No con­tin­u­a­tion to the HHTF DT, change in short/medium term sentiment
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF R TTF DT

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTFLKCCAS
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • TTF DT into HTF50MA, pos­si­ble exhaust­ed move and short term rever­sal on the horizon

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 56.60
  • Tar­gets 56.90, 57.10
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 56.80
  • Tar­gets 56.50, 56.40
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 56.80 — 57.40

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HTF R LKC Area long bias even though no CAS, TTF shows signs of rever­sal after TTF DT with pos­si­ble TT 
  • 16:35
    • TTF D TT into TTFUKCBO attempt
  • 17:05
    • Test­ing of TTF200MA at HTF50MA area above HHTF 1.0SD pos­si­ble fol­low-through on move and actu­al TTF200MABO may come
  • 17:35
    • No pull-through on TTF200MABO yet momen­tum died off cross­ing 1.0 SD
  • 18:05
    • Not much going on
  • 18:35
    • Still not much going on
  • 19:05
    • Still not much going on

Dai­ly Report Card

I decid­ed to merge yesterday’s results with today’s. I have deduct­ed points for not doing the dai­ly review and progress towards week­ly goal. I’ve had a bit of a stress­ful week but glad it looks to be over.

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 56.60
  • Tar­gets 56.90, 57.10
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 56.80
  • Tar­gets 56.50, 56.40
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 56.80 — 57.40

	Date:	7/4/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	87
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	9	Hypos	2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	2/2	10	Setups tak­en
	5	Dai­ly review	0/2	10	Erro­neous Entries
	5	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	37	Total		50

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 
    • Did well here.
• Review

P/L ticks	Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
12.2	1	0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) HTF D TC @ LKC	1	TP	Nor­mal­ly I would have tak­en half risk off but since it was the small­est con­tract I took prof­it it look­ing for anoth­er entry.	-	-
-8.7	2	0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) HTF D TT @ TTF200MABO	1	Scratched	broke TTF 1.0 SD	-	-
6.2	3	0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) TTF D TT	2	Scratched	Loss of momentum	-	-
-1.1	1	0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) TTF D TT	2	scratched	after the move ini­tial­ly going against me 10 ticks and then return­ing with what looked like momen­tum dying out I scratched	-	-
-11.2	2	0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) TTF200MABO	2	SO	-	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 90%
    • Did well here
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • Did well here
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here. Slept better.
  • E: Felt as if I want­ed to force the mar­ket. Even though I didn’t act on it, I felt it and took note of this in my journal. 
  • CS: Did well here
• Positive(s)
  • I under­stand more and more about my per­spec­tive on the mar­ket and am grow­ing more con­fi­dent in it. Took a lot of notes that I can study more on the week­end. Excited!
  • Get­ting more selec­tive with my exper­i­men­tal trades.
• Negative(s)
  • I didn’t do my DRC yes­ter­day due to out­side factors
    • Dealt with that

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.