03062019 Monday — HTF TT — TTF200MABO

03062019 Mon­day — HTF TT — TTF200MABO

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good. Worked out yesterday.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Next release tomor­row, Tues­day June 4th
• EIA report
  • Next release Wednes­day, June 5th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 56.662
      • PVAH 56.265
      • PPOC 56.056
      • PVAL 54.938
      • Low 53.107
    • Where is the LIS?
      • Prev Low area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We haven’t found a bot­tom yet but could be this week
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Imbal­ance still very much in effect on HTF but per­haps we’ll find a bot­tom this week

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • TTF200MACAR
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • After open­ing on a straight drop we have been trad­ing in a HTF PB to VWAP LKC area which could set us up for a HTF D TC play

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 53.30
  • Tar­gets 52.90, 52.60, 52.30
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Prev Low CAS
  • Entry around 53.25
  • Tar­gets 53.50, 53.80
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 52.60 — 53.50

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • LTF A/D going on, pos­si­ble dou­ble bot­tom on TTF with pos­si­ble TTF50MABO which is also LTF200MABO, HTF show­ing a pos­si­ble short-term rever­sal long, no clar­i­ty yet
  • 16:35
    • TTF A/D, LTF R in effect
    • BD / BO both possible
  • 17:05
    • Momen­tum move to TTF200MA pos­si­ble BO
  • 17:35
    • Pos­si­ble PB after TTF200MABO and move to HTF50MA thus pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the move
  • 18:05
    • TTF A/D @ HTF 50MA = High Momen­tum PB (above 1.0SD)
  • 18:35
    • Slight loss of momen­tum indi­cat­ed by 2 cross­es of 1.0SD but no break yet
    • We didn’t ful­ly break out from HTF50MA but this could just be a PB
    • Pos­si­ble PB to TTF VWAP LKC
  • 19:05
    • Momen­tum slowed down but still over TTF VWAP indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion as does HTF show enough space to the upside (at least till UKC
  • 19:35
    • We made a short­er leg up but on low momen­tum just below HTF UKC fol­lowed by a doji can­dle indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble rever­sal (PA being near HTF UKC would indi­cate valid­i­ty to the reversal)
    • How­ev­er the short moves on the HTF could pos­si­ble indi­cate a HTFUKCBO

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF D TT
    • TTF
      • TTF200MABO
      • Entry 1 @ 53.428
    • LTF
      • LTF U NT
  • SL
  • TP
    • 53.884
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 53.498

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF D TT
    • TTF
      • TTF200MABO
      • Entry 2 @ 53.616
    • LTF
      • LTF U TC
  • SL
    • 53.443
  • TP
    • 53.952
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 53.744

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 53.30
  • Tar­gets 52.90, 52.60, 52.30
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Prev Low CAS
  • Entry around 53.25
  • Tar­gets 53.50, 53.80
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 52.60 — 53.50

	Date:	6/3/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	87
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	8	Hypos	2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (TEST)
	9	Trad­ing the process	2/2	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	2	0	Erro­neous Exits
	47	Total		40

• Week­ly Goal
  • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
• Review

P/L ticks	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution	Action
7	0	1	(exper­i­men­tal) TTF200MABO	TP too soon	1	NO	FOLP — Fear Of Los­ing Profits	thought a PB would come but if even that did hap­pen I should have stayed in the trade but was scared of los­ing prof­its again	HTF gives me direc­tion, and TP tar­gets. Trust in your HTF.	Replay + PB + Cre­ate for­mat to track exits
12.8	0	1	(exper­i­men­tal) TTF200MABO	TP too soon	2	NO	FOLP — Fear Of Los­ing Profits	Even though price reversed short­ly after I cov­ered. I did­n’t cov­er because of this. I cov­ered because I was scared of los­ing prof­its — I keep re-enforc­ing that my trend exit rule is valid and I should adhere to it, keep track of it and replay it to grow more con­fi­dent in it	HTF gives me direc­tion, and TP tar­gets. Trust in your HTF.	Replay + PB + Cre­ate for­mat to track exits

• Gonna take a point off trad­ing the process (since I don’t have a cat­e­go­ry for pre-mar­ket prep) because I feel I rushed that a lit­tle bit when it came to the hypos.
• Took 2 exper­i­men­tal trades and am hap­py that I was able to iden­ti­fy and take them. I used 1/10th of nor­mal siz­ing on the first and 2/10th on the second
• Not hap­py with why I cov­ered. This was pure­ly out of fear of los­ing prof­its and as I not­ed in my jour­nal I will work on this by replay­ing, adding to my PB, but more impor­tant­ly cre­ate a for­mat to track exits. Start­ing any­where is bet­ter than start­ing nowhere. 
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 80% because it wasn’t a CAS as much as a BO
  • Real-time analy­sis was good. I did real­ly well here. Shows what you can do with some patience.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • Did real­ly well here. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I learned how the in what stage of the HTF cycle cre­ates the con­text to a BO move on the TTF. This is so cool…. Can’t wait to dive in deep­er and com­pare pre­vi­ous notes in my PB.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Be dili­gent in my process.
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Take prof­its too soon. I need to let win­ners run to be able to jus­ti­fy my stop loss­es when I get stopped out. When I cut win­ners too soon I can’t jus­ti­fy the stop loss­es I have. Just as you know how to take your SL. Take your TP when it hits. And hate to say it but again…. HTF mar­ket con­text has proven a great TP tar­get area. Come on. Trust in your analy­sis and let prob­a­bil­i­ty have the chance to work!

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.