01 Aug 01082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal
01082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- R = Range
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- HHTF = Higher High Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
- AD = Accumulation Distribution
Health review
- Weekly goal
- Eat more consciously
- How do you feel? Have you recently had a break of daily routine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insufficient sleep?
- Last 3 days not a complete 8 hours of sleep but 7.5 which surprisingly I can feel in terms of how sharp I feel. Which is less sharp.
- How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quarter position 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half position = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full position = 1st 50 2nd 10
- 4= half position = 1st 25 2nd 5
Market Prep
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HHTF
- What is the market narrative?
- HHTF R overbought to PB to VWAP CAS to possible more upside on short to medium term
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF
- Levels
- Prev. High 58.807
- PVAH 58.584
- PPOC 58.444
- PVAL 58.231
- Prev. Low 57.804
- What is the market narrative?
- We had 50MA prove to be good support in the UT and yesterday we broke this by having a short DT into D TT 57.50 level (which this whole move could be considered a BO from 57.50 to PB and CAS of this same level.
- Since we moved back into KC as part of D TT we could expect more upside on the short to medium term
- Levels
- TTF
- Does the Asian session show clues that align with market narrative?
- TTF D TT with lots of AD inside the KC and short term UT and small PA PB to 50MA
- Expect a possible short term downside before medium to long term upside
- TTF D TT with lots of AD inside the KC and short term UT and small PA PB to 50MA
- Does the Asian session show clues that align with market narrative?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Long
- HTF D TT @ LKCCAS
- Entry around 57.95
- Targets 58.10, 58.30, 58.55
- Hypo 2 Short
- HTF R 50MACAR
- Entry around 58.05
- Targets 57.85, 57.60
- Hypo 3 Rotational
- 57.70 — 58.20
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
- Forward test experimental trades
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- HHTF
- HHTF R Overbought PB to VWAP/200MA CAS
- HTF
- HTF D TT to possible 50MACAR
- TTF
- Possible TTF R
- Opportunity (if any)
- TTF R 200MABO as part of HTF 50MACAR
- HHTF
- 16:35
- HHTF
- HTF
- Move to HTF LKC possible CAS but not looking convincing as of yet
- TTF
- TTF R Oversold with lots of AD going on just above LKC but looking like possible absorption for another leg down
- Opportunity (if any)
- Unclear yet
- 17:05
- HHTF
- HTF
- HTF LKCCAS
- TTF
- TTF R Oversold LKCCAS + BO to UKC
- Opportunity (if any)
- Possible TTF R 200MABO with target HTF 50MA
- 17:35
- HHTF
- HTF
- Possible Upper 2.0 SD CAS near 50MA plus ended previous period quite bearish so sentiment could have changed here.
- I will look for more bearish clues before getting in short though
- Possible Upper 2.0 SD CAS near 50MA plus ended previous period quite bearish so sentiment could have changed here.
- TTF
- TTF R 200MACAR
- Opportunity (if any)
- Possible ‘bounces up the ladder’ before having a big drop
- 18:05
- HHTF
- Still above VWAP
- HTF
- Possible 50MACAR @ 2.0 SD and now bias is towards the short side, possible LKCBD to run for 200MACAS on the long term
- TTF
- I’ve seen this pattern before and am trying to figure out if I’m remembering it right…
- Opportunity (if any)
- Move down to HTFLKC possible BD
- HHTF
- 18:35
- HHTF
- Possible VWAPBD
- HTF
- Squeeze in lower KC, no real attempt at 50MA
- TTF
- PA very slow but following the pattern, still fuzzy on how this develops but took a short with target previous HTF swing low
- Opportunity (if any)
- Run towards HTF 200MA
- HHTF
- 19:05
- HHTF
- HTF
- No move yet
- TTF
- Things looking less bearish at the moment but still trading below 200MA however possible BO here
- Opportunity (if any)
- Unclear, might have to scratch my short position
- 19:35
- HHTF
- HTF
- TTF
- No move yet
- Opportunity (if any)
- 20:05
- HHTF
- HTF
- TTF
- Opportunity (if any)
- 16:05
Daily Report Card
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Long
- HTF D TT @ LKCCAS
- Entry around 57.95
- Targets 58.10, 58.30, 58.55
- Hypo 2 Short
- HTF R 50MACAR
- Entry around 58.05
- Targets 57.85, 57.60
- Hypo 3 Rotational
- 57.70 — 58.20
Daily Report Card | ||
Date: | 8/1/2019 | |
Weekly Goal | Execute A+ / A setups | |
Combined Score | 86 | |
Process Report Card (10 each) | ||
9 | Session PECS | |
9 | Hypos | |
10 | Market Prep | |
10 | Daily review | |
10 | Progress tow. weekly goal | |
48 | Total | |
Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
100% | 8 | Real-time analysis |
2/2 | 10 | Setups Identified (inc. TEST) |
2/2 | 5 | Setups taken |
0/2 | 10 | Erroneous Entries |
1/2 | 5 | Erroneous Exits |
38 | total | |
- Weekly Goal
- Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
- Forward test experimental trades
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo 1 — 90% Hypo 2 — 90%
- Again 2 hypos playing out. Sort of. Didn’t really quite reach the overextended levels I hypothesized but still pretty decent.
- Real-time analysis — 80%
- I had a great day today even though I lost in terms of P/L I gained in knowledge and confidence. I recognized the pattern developing during the session but forgot the ending of it. I traded it well for the most part but then started doubting the pattern and cut down on risk I had put on only to see it would hit my targets after all. This is the first time seeing the pattern within my current approach to understanding market narrative and I’ll just be that much better next time.
- Hypo 1 — 90% Hypo 2 — 90%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- P: Did well here
- E: Did well here. Stayed composed because I believed in the pattern….. Until I didn’t and because I started doubting I took off risk. At the time it was the right decision, even though I would have banked a good profit if I hadn’t. “I’ll get you next time, Gadget! NEXT TIME!!!” Sorry.. Had to do it 🙂
- CS: Did well here.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- Trust my approach. Nobody does it the way I do it (at least that I know of:)) And that my friend is a good thing.
- Positive(s)
- Learned to only trade in the direction of my market narrative and although it seems tempting to take that short opportunity (for small profits, but big risk) just focus on the bigger picture and trade in alignment with the bigger picture ie market narrative
- Adjusted my intra-session template for logging clues to focus on clues in alignment with market narrative and for any signs of change in that narrative. Did well here.
- Negative(s)
- Like I said. I might have lost P/L but I learned so much today 🙂
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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