01072019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

01072019 Mon­day —  Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat 2 meals a day
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)?
  • Had a busy week­end and did have enough sleep last night.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1 = don’t trade 2/3 =half posi­tion siz­ing 4/5 = full position
  • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Tomor­row
• EIA report
  • Wednes­day

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High    59.782
      • PVAH    59.569
      • PPOC    59.141
      • PVAL    58.996
      • Low    57.748
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PPOC area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We broke HTF200MA but then gapped up at AS open
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Tech­ni­cal­ly HTF R is still in effect how­ev­er we might be BO

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF Over­bought or HTFUKCCAR
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Gap up and then trad­ed slight­ly higher

Trade Idea 

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTFUKCCAR
  • Entry around 59.60
  • Tar­gets 59.30, extend­ed 59.05
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF50MACAS
  • Entry around 59.30
  • Tar­gets 59.50, 59.70, extend­ed 60.20
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTF200MABD
  • Entry around 59.15
  • Tar­gets 58.90, 58.70, extend­ed 58.20

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • TTF UT going on but per­haps los­ing momentum
  • 16:35
    • Price BD from TTF UKC and VWAp now at 50MA, pos­si­ble fur­ther BD
  • 17:05
    • Noth­ing going on
  • 17:35
    • Noth­ing going on
  • 18:05
    • Not much going on. Haven’t reversed. TTF KC widened, LTF R going on
  • 18:35
    • PA still slug­gish and reached TTF LKC and BD from HTF UKC
  • 19:05
    • Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion of TTFLKCBD
  • 19:35
    • Con con­tin­u­a­tion how­ev­er we reversed and are about to test 50MA

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea 

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTFUKCCAR
  • Entry around 59.60
  • Tar­gets 59.30, extend­ed 59.05
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF50MACAS
  • Entry around 59.30
  • Tar­gets 59.50, 59.70, extend­ed 60.20
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTF200MABD
  • Entry around 59.15
  • Tar­gets 58.90, 58.70, extend­ed 58.20

	Date:	7/1/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	52
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	2	Ses­sion PECS	20%	2	Real-time analy­sis
	7	Hypos	4/5	7	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	1	Trad­ing the process	4/4	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	1/4	7	Erro­neous Entries
	1	Progress tow. week­ly goal	2/4	5	Erro­neous Exits
	21	Total		31

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 
• Review

P/L ticks	Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
-25.7	1	0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) HTF Gap	1	SO	Stopped Out	-	-
-5.7	2	0	0	TTF U TC	2	SO	Stopped Out	-	-
-11.6	3	0	0	TTF U TC	2	SO	Stopped Out	-	-
-45.5	4	0	1	(exper­i­men­tal) TTFLKCBD	2	SO	Stopped Out	Moved stop	Take a break after 3 loss­es and reassess if you’re in the right state of mind
-36.1	5	1	1	(exper­i­men­tal) TTFLKCBD	2	SO	Stopped Out	Added to pre­vi­ous los­ing position

• First trade was dur­ing Asian Ses­sion and took the small­est amount I could trade.
• The rest were dur­ing the EU session
  • Num­ber 2 and 3 were good setups but got stopped out
  • 4 and 5 was hor­ri­ble. Did not take my stop and moved it. Then decid­ed to put it extra wide not think­ing clear. On top of that num­ber 5 was an add to the pre­vi­ous los­er num­ber 4. I am tired and not think­ing straight today. I’ve had a good run of not mess­ing up for a while but today I messed up every­thing. One good thing is that I used small posi­tion sizes and did not increase siz­ing and over­all lost 2% of account (account­ing for all 5 trades). Trade 2 and 3 should have been tak­en on my 1st account but that didn’t work today for some rea­son. Already con­tact­ed bro­ker about this. So loss­es on 2nd (test) account should be slight­ly less
  • How will I work on pre­vent­ing this in the future? 
    • 2 things
      • 1) when I did my health assess­ment I should have been more crit­i­cal and adjust­ed my tem­plate to incor­po­rate a stricter val­u­a­tion of sleep. I had 2 nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep in a row and this has dras­ti­cal­ly low­ered my abil­i­ty to stay focused on my plan and basi­cal­ly start decid­ing things in the moment. Very wrong. Thus no more trad­ing if this is the case. 
      • 2) after I had tak­en 3 Loss­es I should have reassessed my men­tal state or at least tak­en a walk to try and clear my head. Stuck a post it to my screen. 
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 — 70%
    • We didn’t quite drop as low
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • 20% see above
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Bad. Didn’t sleep enough the last 2 days.
  • E: I wasn’t too emo­tion­al just ‘unwill­ing’ to obey my rules
  • CS: Severe­ly impaired, see above
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • That I should be stricter with my sleep reg­i­ment and if I did not get enough sleep for 2 or more days I should not trade.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Get more sleep. I’m doing well dur­ing the week usu­al­ly but then some week­ends I go over­board. I had already talked to my gf on sup­port­ing me in mak­ing changes to bat­tle this yes­ter­day. Loe and behold today I mess up. 
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Deny­ing what I know is going to help me get to the next level. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.